During a pivotal three-day diplomatic visit that concluded on Wednesday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s trip to Pakistan was marked not only by a strengthening of ties but also by a stark warning from the United States explicitly instructing Islamabad not to proceed with any deals with Iran. Despite this, the visit yielded eight Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), paving the way for a massive increase in bilateral trade from the current $2.5 billion to an ambitious $10 billion.
At a joint press conference, Raisi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif showcased their commitment to a range of sectors, including agriculture, health, security, and trade. Yet, the centerpiece of discussions — and potentially the yardstick by which the visit’s success will be measured — is the long-stalled Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. This project, critical for energy-deficient Pakistan, has been throttled by American influence and sanctions threats, reflecting a geopolitical chess game with Islamabad caught between its regional alliances and international pressures.
Initially dubbed the “peace pipeline” and including India, the project faced a setback when India withdrew in 2009 amid U.S. pressures and fee disputes. Iran completed its part of the pipeline in 2014, investing $2 billion, but Pakistan has been hesitant to proceed, wary of U.S. sanctions that had already hit Islamabad hard by targeting crucial defense collaborations, particularly with sanctions recently imposed on four companies involved in supplying missile-related equipment to Pakistan, including three Chinese and one Belarusian company.
This clear warning from the U.S. about “potential risk of sanctions” came as no surprise, given its historical stance. Yet, it starkly contrasts with the U.S. treatment of India’s missile program, highlighting what Pakistan views as a double standard. Islamabad’s frustration is palpable as it juggles its economic crises and the need for energy with its geopolitical strategies. The U.S., a significant export destination and self-proclaimed ally, stands accused by Pakistan of offering friendship with one hand while setting traps with the other.
Amid these geopolitical maneuvers, there is an underlying tension among Pakistan’s ruling elite, who feel increasingly threatened by the U.S.’s willingness to freeze assets, as seen in the case of Russian oligarchs. This fear of economic and personal repercussions is casting a long shadow over their decision-making, especially as they weigh the benefits of strengthening ties with Iran against the potential risks of U.S. retribution.
Despite these challenges, Pakistan is navigating its foreign policy landscape with a maturity that belies the pressures it faces. Its efforts to foster regional alliances, while balancing the overhanging threat of U.S. economic retaliation — a fear intensified by the recent freezing of Russian oligarchs’ assets — underscore the delicate dance of diplomacy and national interest.
The evolving narrative around the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and broader regional cooperation is a testament to Pakistan’s resolve to prioritize its sovereignty and developmental needs over external dictates. As Raisi’s visit concluded, the questions that remain are not just about pipelines and trade figures, but about the broader implications for regional stability and the recalibration of international relations in an era of shifting alliances and emerging multipolarity.