Mr Zardari’s deal with the PMLN for a coalition government in the federation paved the way for his second entry into the Presidency. He is the first civilian leader to have been elected to this august position for the second time. The PPP would have some other constitutional positions besides the provincial administrations of Sindh and Balochistan in exchange for support to the coalition government from outside. For the time being, it is reluctant to join the federal cabinet probably apprehending the adverse fallout of hard economic and fiscal decisions and the likely public disquiet.
Some insiders say the coalition is not a ‘marriage of convenience’ between partners. It was cobbled together by powers that count to complete the process of elections. The PMLn leaders are worried about the political cost they have to pay if the government fails to deliver. All odds are stacked against the otherwise hard-working, resilient and accommodative, Shehbaz Sharif. Given the split mandate and the political polarisation, the coalition needed more of the younger Sharif than any other leader.
No doubt, the life of the new government would be solely dependent on the support of the main coalition partner, the Pakistan People’s Party, and the establishment. The coalition also needed more of a “king of reconciliation” of the calibre of President Asif Ali Zardari. He plays his cards well. In my view, it was a calculated move to sit outside the government while having a big say in the governing architecture of the country. His Presidency would not be a ceremonial one. Free from the inherent constraints of the cabinet positions, he would force his decisions on the government by sparingly leveraging his parliamentary support in matters of significance to the small federal units. It would not be an uneasy partnership.
All odds are stacked against the otherwise hard-working, resilient and accommodative, Shehbaz Sharif.
How effectively and how often he would use this weapon, nevertheless, depends on the extent of the support the main player would be willing to extend to the coalition regime countering or circumventing the manoeuvres of the Presidency. President Zardari, being a hard bargainer and a careful operator, strategises his moves cautiously to sail smoothly with his signature smile gauging the depth of waters before wading in. He has mastered the art of winning over the persons and institutions that could significantly advance his cause in the game of power politics. Shehbaz Sharif, in a sense, is lucky to have such a man in the Presidency. He needs, however, to remain on his right side.
Given the political polarisation exasperated by the alleged election rigging and aggressive opposition, the coalition partners have to work assiduously to address the challenges the country has been confronted with for the past three years. The recent vote has amply demonstrated the mood of the tech-savvy young generation who form over 40 per cent of the electoral strength of the country. Despite all odds, they voted in droves for change, and they seem determined to protect their electoral right.
The Election Commission is seemingly averse to any forensic audit of the vote count or the reconciliation of 45 and 47 electoral forms. Its verdict against the allocation of the reserve seats to the Sunni Itehad Council on procedural grounds and its decision to dole out these seats to other political parties have added fuel to the fire. Disputants have little hope for swift disposal of their applications by the limited number of Election Tribunals. Would these controversies be decided in the field as put it by the chief of the JUI or would the ECP relent in its efforts to present the electoral outcome as a fait accompli to the complainants? The country can ill afford to have a prolonged electoral controversy and political polarization.
The coalition regime has formidable problems ahead. The first and foremost challenge to the country is the debt management. It has to pay $ 24 billion before the end of the Fiscal year, or some $ 90 billion in the coming three years. It is imperative to strike a deal with the IMF to secure a new financial aid package. The government does not have any plan to control the staggering inflation ranging around 30% except for replenishing the Utility Stores with cheap stuff or providing subsidized floors. Aggravating the inflationary pressure on the common man are the high energy prices that have broken the back of consumers and debilitated the manufacturing industry impacting the country’s export capacity.
The burgeoning gap between exports and imports, revenue collection and high expenditures with chronic high budgetary deficits and the rising unemployment estimated at over 9% last year and the meaningful implementation of the so-called Memoranda of Understanding for direct foreign investment signed with different countries under SIFC would warrant the immediate focus of the coalition government. Equally menacing to our security are issues such as the population explosion; the lowest Human Development Index; pervasive corruption; bad governance; rising poverty and climate change. The election manifestos of the coalition partners did not have any meaningful plans to address these problems.
The new bail-out package from the IMF would bring only temporary relief without helping us rehabilitate our economy. The imperative need for the country is to negotiate the restructuring of the dollar loans to secure a moratorium for repayments. The new loans if any should be invested in the industrial and agriculture sectors. The circular debts incurred by the energy sector are a big drag on our economy. We should renegotiate the capacity payment clauses with the IPPs. In the meantime, we should concentrate on the completion of electricity-generating dams already under construction.
To address such huge challenges, the country should have had a national government including PTI or at least we should have put in place a Commission for Reconciliation to end the political prosecutions and the mindless use of the state’s coercive power to lower the high political temperature in the country.
Can we place some hope in the wisdom of the “King of Reconciliation” ensconced in the Presidency?
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.