On March 11, 1992, Pakistan faced Australia in its famed Cricket World Cup campaign. Pakistan had already lost too many matches and only a win against Australia could keep its hopes alive when Pakistan’s captain; Imran Khan came for the toss wearing a shirt with a tiger on it. Imran won the toss, and told the presenter that he wanted his team to play like cornered tigers. Pakistan went on to win the match and subsequently the tournament. The toss against Australia was the first time Imran Khan had used the term that foreshadowed his legacy not only as a cricketer but also as a philanthropist and a politician. 30 years later, Imran Khan walked the road to his ouster from government with the same mindset that he had for that fateful match against Australia.
By the end of 2021, Imran Khan’s backers who had brought him to power had become disillusioned with him. His enthusiastic supporters had grown intensely pessimistic. The economy was in a downward spiral, political arena was in a disarray, the stock market faced its worst downturn. Electricity, gas, petroleum prices were soaring, while the rupee was in a free-fall. He left the relations with the US, China, and India at their lowest, and his response to India’s surprise regarding Kashmir was lackluster. Nothing seemed to be working. The state and the running of its affairs had become a joke. Elected members of PTI were keeping a low profile in their constituencies, fearing the public reaction in the general elections. To put a cherry on the top, Federal Ministers considered close to Imran Khan regularly gave foolish and unrealistic statements on National TV.
As the talk of a No-Confidence-Motion gained momentum, Imran Khan sensed the noose tightening around his neck and warned in one of his many “To whom it may concern” addresses that his ouster will make him more dangerous. However, nobody took his threat seriously and the No-Confidence-Motion was allowed to proceed.
Putting to good use the Machiavellian tactic of lying aggressively, Imran actually made people believe that him saying “Absolutely Not” to an interviewer had angered the Americans.
Imran Khan, while still in the PM house, had already started preparing for what was to come. Out of nothing, he created a theory that his government was being ousted at the behest of foreign powers and that his refusal to bow down to America had put him out of favor with the establishment. On March 27, 2022, during a public rally in Islamabad, he waved a paper during his addresses, claiming it was the cipher that contained the threats made to his government. While his opponents struggled to manage the numbers required for the VoNC to pass, Imran Khan set the stage for the post-VoNC politics. By the time he was actually ousted, he had already turned the tide in his favor and against those who had brought him down. Putting to good use the Machiavellian tactic of lying aggressively, he actually made people believe that him saying “Absolutely Not” to an interviewer had angered the Americans. Through pro-active campaigning, he made the public forget the dismal performance of his own government and was successful in making them believe that he had been ousted just when he had managed to circumnavigate the economic crisis created by the past governments and when the economy was readying for a take-off.
Within days, he went from being a rejected ruler who, during his three-year tenure, had failed to achieve anything substantial to a democratic statesman who was ousted through conspiracy.
Imran Khan presented an unprecedented challenge to Pakistan’s establishment, unlike the cautious approach taken by the likes of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir, and Nawaz Sharif.
The campaign initiated by Imran Khan climaxed on May 9, when his supporters, triggered by his arrest, came in a direct confrontation with the military. Imran Khan refuted any direct involvement but reiterated that it was only an organic response by his supporters and that he could not do anything to stop the public wrath.
Project Imran, from its launch to the ultimate fall-out, makes an interesting case study. While Imran Khan faces multiple court cases of varying nature and the state prepares for the next General Elections, the question remains, what will happen after the elections?
It is a fact that while Imran Khan had clearly lost a majority of his support during his years in power and was a highly unpopular leader by the end of 2021, he managed to regain his popularity through his pro-active sloganeering around the VoNC. Despite the entirety of the state apparatus put to use against him, nothing seems to have stuck and he has managed to retain his popularity. It was expected that a coalition government led by Shahbaz Sharif would ensure that Imran Khan became history but the dismal performance of Shahbaz government gave the public all the more reason to cherish the Imran Khan days. Today, against all odds, PTI has managed to field the maximum number of candidates among all political parties across the country. A majority of PTI leadership has either quit politics or the party and those who haven’t, are behind bars and yet, the party seems pretty much intact. Is he running the party from his jail cell? Are there still any hidden hands working for him? Or is it just the fruit of having true support at the grass-root level?
The current situation, regardless of the means, indicates that PTI is far from being written off. Its voter base is intact and with an almost unanimous support among educated youth, it wouldn’t be possible to employ traditional poll rigging tactics against them. One would expect PTI workers to monitor the polling and vote counting process in a manner no other party can manage. So what if PTI ends up winning the elections? Or if not winning, securing enough seats to be able to have a voice? Will the establishment back out? Will PTI be allowed to form a government? If yes, will Imran Khan stay the same vengeful PM that he was in his first tenure or will he finally act like a statesman? If not, will the outcome be any different than the elections of 1970?
Next few months can be critically important for the future of this state. Imran Khan has so far managed to outsmart his opponents. The state has failed to cage the cornered tiger and now the game is nearing its end. What happens next may seal the fate for not only Imran Khan and PTI but also decide the future of political engineering and the political role of establishment.
The writer is a veteran journalist based in Islamabad. He writes on social, political, economic, defence and strategic developments across the South Asian region. He can be reached through on zm.journalist@gmail.com