February 8, 2024, has finally been announced as the date for General Elections in the country. According to the schedule, today is the deadline for submission of nominations.
In the ever-complicated politics of Pakistan, three major political forces are readying themselves for the electoral battle. Among these, all eyes are set on the most prominent and recently turned controversial entities; Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf. On Friday evening, as these lines are written, the Supreme Court of Pakistan granted Imran Khan bail in the cypher case yet, his immediate release from jail is unlikely as it is hindered by his arrest in the 190-million-pound case. During the late hours this evening, the Election Commission of Pakistan revoked the party’s electoral symbol over irregularities and discrepancies in the intra-party polls – which it declared “null and void” in its verdict.
Imran Khan and his party had laboured hard for holding these very elections but as is a routine in Pakistan, they are nowhere when the moment is finally here. The point under discussion is whether PTI will be able to participate in general elections or not.
The Bhuttos and Sharifs have managed to preserve their political relevance only by reconciling.
The oldest surviving political force in Pakistan; the People’s Party, is often accused of having been birthed by Ayub Khan; a military dictator. While the process of its birth may have been unnatural, the fact remains that the People’s Party and its leadership managed to survive against Ayub, Mujeeb, Zia and Musharraf among other hardships. Even today, despite being far from popular, it remains relevant in politics. The assassinations of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto seem to have only strengthened the party.
The story of Nawaz Sharif’s political birth is not much different. Launched by Zia to counter Bhuttoism, Nawaz had the support of the establishment but he too, like Bhutto, ended up falling out with his backers. His party, the PMLN, may not have faced assassinations as the PPP did, but the political confrontation with the powerful throughout the 90s and the subsequent coup by Musharraf in ’99 were no joke. Having the entire leadership either in jail or in exile was supposed to break the party, yet it did not. Despite having been the outcast just a few years ago, whose speeches were not allowed to be televised and whose name was muted out from all transmissions, Nawaz Sharif is well set for an unprecedented fourth term.
With these good examples, there is also a bad example, The MQM. Starting as a rights movement, it rapidly gained traction with the public and was seen as a rising political force in Sindh. The otherwise apolitical, educated youth were the faces of this rights movement. Then it fell prey to the confrontationist approach of its figurehead. From being a challenge for the PPP, the party got reduced to being known for street crime, extortion, target killing and whatnot. Today, while its founder remains exiled, the party is no more than a small group whose nuisance value is little more than a gap filler.
Lessons that can be drawn from the examples of the Pakistan People’s Party, Pakistan Muslim League and Mutahidda Qoumi Movement: Patience, Temperament, Restraint, and Reconciliation.
The question is, can Imran Khan be expected to exercise patience, show restraint, have some temperament and be willing for political reconciliation?
Imran Khan and the PTI stand at a crossroads. The choice they make here will define their trajectory. Whether they choose to tread the path they have so far since April ’22 or go back to the drawing board, make amends and earn a political resurrection is a decision only Imran Khan can make.
Imran Khan entered the political arena to bring justice to the country, to serve the people and to bring the virtues of Western democracy to this Eastern society while preserving the social construct of the East. Will he be able to accomplish all that from any jail? It would be foolish to think his time in jail is doing any good to his person, his party or his voters. Sooner or later, the vacuum left by his absence would be filled. Who fills it is irrelevant but we can be certain that his charisma won’t be matched, not by any of the available options within or outside his party and without his charisma, the party built around him would factionalize. The Bhuttos and Sharifs have managed to preserve their political relevance only by reconciling. Today, with all their faults, they remain available to their voters, to the powerful and their opponents. Imran Khan needs to acknowledge that confrontation with the state is never fruitful and that 9th May was a blunder. He needs to learn that rigidity fractures and that there is no shame in showing flexibility. He needs to learn that peace is made only in the absence of it and only with one’s enemies. Compromise, if not for yourself then for those who waited 22 long years to see you don that sherwani and climb those stairs. Compromise, for those who invested their time and energy in your dreams. Compromise, for those who wasted their youthful years campaigning for you.
No one puts up a long fight for an absentee king. The longer Imran Khan stays behind bars, the more will his party disintegrate. Sooner or later, his voters will find other voting options, those who believed in him would eventually turn to another messiah but the loss of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf and Imran Khan would be one of the biggest tragedies of Pakistan’s political history.
The writer is a veteran journalist based in Islamabad. He writes on social, political, economic, defence and strategic developments across the South Asian region. He can be reached through on [email protected]