Delhi is now in a dominant position both regionally and globally as a result of the country’s rapid economic development and militarization of the occupied Kashmir with the August 5, 2019, event and imperiousness over the last three decades, making it an appealing contender for “great power” status in the coming years.
Islamabad’s policy pundit must evaluate Delhi’s internal, regional, and global policy goals and directions as a neighbour since they directly impact its stability and economic well-being.
Sun Tzu’s well-known maxim, “If you know your competitor and know your abilities, you don’t have to worry about the outcome of a hundred battles,” applies here.
Delhi ranked fifth among the world’s economies in 2022, as reported by the World Bank, with a nominal GDP of $3,385 billion, compared to the US’s $25,462 billion and China’s $17,963 billion. India is anticipated to rise to third place by 2030, with China and the US holding both the first and second groups spots. Comparatively, Pakistan’s GDP was only projected to reach $376 billion in 2021-22.
Delhi has been able to quickly raise its military spending thanks to its rapidly expanding economic power. India’s military expenditure was predicted to be $81.4 billion in 2023, placing it fourth globally, as per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independently conducted study agency that examines all elements of armed conflict. According to government projections for 2023-24, Pakistan will barely spend $8 billion on its military.
Islamabad’s policy pundit must evaluate Delhi’s internal, regional, and global policy goals.
Delhi has been able to quickly increase the military’s might in a variety of areas thanks to its higher military spending. Its military might have increased thanks to its rapidly growing strategic alliance with the United States and its allies, altering the balance of power in the region of South Asia to Pakistan’s detriment.
If one takes into account the alarming trends in India’s domestic, regional, and international goals and policies, India represents a constant threat to Pakistan’s regional security and economic prosperity. Internally, the influence of Hindutva and Hindu extremism, as promoted and practised by the Narendra Modi-led BJP and, perhaps, a large majority of Indians, has dangerous repercussions for not only India’s religious minorities yet also for Pakistan, which is viewed as a representation of Islamic ideology, which promotes social equality, despite its flaws.
In other words, they all still see Kashmir as a matter of policy in need of a fair resolution. Of course, they disagree over the specifics of any potential solution. However, what transpired on August 5 of last year has substantially changed the political landscape of the unrest-plagued region as well as the reality on the ground. The Kashmir issue now primarily revolves around ideology, identity management, demography, domicile, dignity, and difficult survival questions.
People in Kashmir feel that picking August 5 for a situation like that was intentional. According to them, the BJP is spreading yet another message calling for the subjugation of Muslims in Kashmir and India on the same day. With regard to Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP will henceforth remember August 5 as the day it did “bhoomi pujan” at the location of a temple in Ayodhya where the Babri Masjid formerly stood. The Hindu religion, in contract to their semitic religion, is inextricably linked to the caste structure naturally. India is methodically cementing its dominant position in the region of South Asia and the Indian Ocean at the regional level. In his 2014 book, “World Order,” Henry Kissinger draws attention to India’s plans for hegemony and notes that the country has “in procedures, an elevated status in the Indian Ocean region” and, like the American Monroe Doctrine, bases its foreign policy “on its version of a South Asian order.” India sees Pakistan as a significant impediment to achieving its hegemonic goals in South Asia. A sizable number of Indians hold out hope that the partition, which resulted in the creation of Pakistan with most Muslims, will be reversed. These two essential elements can be used to pinpoint the origins of many disagreements between Pakistan and India.
According to a renowned Indian security expert C. Raja Mohan, India aspires to become one of the most powerful nations, with a significant role in maintaining global stability and security or a major pole in the newly emerging multipolar world. Its participation in the G-20 and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), as well as its pursuit of permanent membership in the UN Security Council, ought to be viewed in that light. In support of the US policy of containment of China, India’s long-standing and rapidly expanding strategic alliance with the US and its allies, whether bilaterally or through forums like the Quad (Canberra, Delhi, Tokyo, and the US), fosters its economic development and military modernization and helps it fend off Beijing’s incursion into south Asia and the Indian Ocean region. India is too powerful to be considered merely a US satellite, though. As they promote their national agendas, there will therefore occasionally be policy conflicts between the two.
The analysis presented above emphasizes the necessity for Pakistan to adopt austerity and self-reliance policies, strengthen the stability of its politics, and rapidly advance its economic and technological development while preserving a credible stability deterrent and pursuing a safe foreign policy. If it does not, it will be in great danger both inside and abroad.
It is conceivable that the Afghanistan-style religion-fanatic regime will develop because of the protracted Indian colonialism of Kashmir. It will damage the political structure in India, the economy, and the morale of the armed forces. In its deadly escapades, India, like other colonial powers, would eventually fall to a well-coordinated public revolt. An extra decade or two might be required. But the valiant people of Kashmiri will eventually bury Hindu India’s aspirations for imperial rule, much like the renowned Hindu Kush.
In the end, India might decide to negotiate a settlement with Islamabad and the Kashmiris if it must deal with an insurgency in Kashmir, a robust Pakistan, external pressure, and a weakened economy. The Hindu fascists, though, might decide not to give in. They may start another conflict with Pakistan by bleeding in the occupied Kashmir, which will bring Armageddon to South Asia and the rest of the world.
The writer is a freelance columnist.