On April 19, India launched the latest version of its series of ballistic missiles, Agni-V. With a range of 5,000 plus kilometres, it is a three-stage solid-fuel missile featuring Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV), each missile being capable of carrying 2-10 separate nuclear warheads. According to knowledgeable sources, each warhead can be assigned to a different target, separated by hundreds of kilometres. In addition to this, two or more warheads can be assigned to a single target. The MIRVs ensure a credible second-strike capability even with a few missiles. With the successful launch of Agni-V, India has joined the privileged club of the P-5, namely the US, Russia, China, UK and France, possessing ICBM capabilities.
No wonder the test has created great euphoria in India. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called it “another milestone in our quest to add to the credibility of our security and preparedness”. The missile is reported to be indigenously designed, researched, and manufactured with Indian technology. In the words of the head of India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), V K Sarswat, “This missile has given a message to the entire world that India has the capability to design, develop, build and manufacture missiles of this class and we are today a missile power.” The director of the Agni project, Avinash Chander said the Agni-V represented “joint strides taken by India in its integrated nuclear weapon development programme”. Indian media, both electronic and print, extensively covered the launch and almost all the TV channels hosted discussions on its strategic importance by defence experts and analysts. Prominent English language daily The Hindu in an editorial called the missile a “game changer”, quoting from a statement by Sarswat, who is also the Scientific Advisor to the Indian Defence Ministry.
Although the strategic direction of the Indian missile development programme was set in the 1980s and the country has already in its arsenal a number of short-range and medium-range nuclear-capable missiles, the Agni-V launch has evoked an unusually alarmist reaction from regional as well as global quarters.
Three reasons seem to occupy a prominent place in the varied comments on the strategic significance of the missile.
First is the timing of the launch. Coming on the heels of the failed North Korean missile launch, the successful test is meant to convey a clear message to the world that India is now a missile power. But observers are puzzled that the test should come at the moment when Sino-Indian relations are progressing towards new heights of cooperation and understanding, both at bilateral and multilateral levels, indicated by President Hu Jintao’s participation in the BRICs Summit held in New Delhi in March. In their reaction to the missile test, which gives the Indians the capability to reach most cities, industrial centres and military installations in China, the Chinese have accused some vested interests of trying to undermine the hard-earned Sino-Indian strategic partnership by playing up the China threat. The Chinese, however, counselled India not to fall into this trap and refrain from overestimating its strength.
Although DRDO sources have asserted that Agni-V is not country specific, nonetheless, as an Indian defence and security analyst has said, primarily Agni-V’s strategic objective is to deter China. In this regard, a statement by former Prime Minister A B Vajpayee on the occasion of the 1998 nuclear tests is referred to wherein he had clearly mentioned the nuclear threat from China and Pakistan and their strategic links, driving India’s nuclear weapons development programme. The question remains whether Agni-V is a reliable and stable counterweight to China’s nuclear power. The Chinese say it is not.
The second source of controversy surrounding Agni-V is the declared and potential range of the missile. Official sources have said that the missile has a 5,000 km range, whereas the Chinese and other foreign sources claim that its potential range of 8,000 km is being deliberately downplayed in order to avoid arousing the concerns of other countries, which could be hit by it. According to P R Chari, an eminent Indian defence and security analyst, even with a range of 8,000 km, Agni-V does not qualify as an ICBM. For that, Agni-V will have to acquire a range of 10,000 km. In the context of the Indian quest for an ICBM capability, a pertinent question arises: what are the strategic objectives India wants to achieve by attaining this capability? “Does it (India with ICBM capability) wish to target Washington, Moscow, Paris and London? That would ensure India being targeted, in turn, by all these countries,” says Chari, clearly implying that it could never be the strategic objective of India.
Thirdly, the launch of Agni-V is also being projected as the success of the Congress-led UPA government, lurching from crisis to crisis. It is hoped that the successful launch of Agni-V will shore up the morale of Manmohan Singh’s government, besieged by a hostile BJP-led opposition, estranged allies in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, mounting corruption and the inflation-hit poor people in the country. The missile test accompanied by a significant choice of words by Prime Minister Singh is also meant to counter the outgoing Indian army chief’s indictment of the county’s defence preparedness.
There is a growing consensus among the strategic community outside India that the Agni-V test, unless India through diplomacy succeeds in persuading the international community of its peaceful intentions, poses a threat to regional stability with a potential of starting an arms race in the region and provoking China to come out with a strong response.
The writer is a professor of International Relations at Sargodha University and can be reached at [email protected]