Having researched and written much on drone strikes, I, for one have stopped commenting on the issue due to the lack of real facts and figures owing to the covert nature of the programme. I am convinced that hardly any report that is published on drone strikes is free from the influence of one or the other intelligence agency that is involved in the covert programme. The fact that most of the TV anchors, op-ed writers, and experts forget is that there is very little true knowledge on the subject of drones, especially on the nature of the drone strikes ‘agreement’ between the US and Pakistan. It is an agreement not between the two countries, nor between the two militaries, but an agreement between a few men from both sides who hold the reins of power in their countries, a notion that I have derived having talked to several people in the military and intelligence quarters of both countries.
Thus, the hue and cry that drone strikes are being done against the will of Pakistan is baseless. The strikes are mutually coordinated and organised on the behest of this small power group from the two countries. Except for maybe on a few occasions where a strike was urgently needed, almost all the strikes are done with a complete knowledge on both sides within that power circle. One of the high up Pakistan military officers that I talked to revealed that within the Pakistan military, except for the Chief of Army Staff, and the DG ISI, there is not a third person who gets the entire information on the subject. Another military officer denied even the DG ISI having complete information on the subject. The rest of the entire top army brass including the Corps Commanders are as clueless on the subject as any civilian.
So what exactly is going on here? Let’s recap a little.
While there was democracy in Pakistan over the past five years, the defence and foreign policy was kept far from the hands of the civil government, especially US-Pakistan relations. The Memogate scandal was an outcome of the civil government trying to quietly take charge of the foreign policy and defence matters, and perhaps correct the civil-military equation. But that failed and Ambassador Hussain Haqqani was pushed out of his office. The military jealously guarded its territory, not because it had economic ambitions, but because there was too much to conceal in terms of its covert relations and agreements with the foreign policy establishment of the US.
The situation, as much as we would like to believe, has been no different in the US. In my article “Struggle for power in the US” in July 2012, I mentioned how exactly the Pentagon and the CIA have hijacked US foreign policy when it comes to Pakistan. From the issue of drone strikes to the war on terror, the State Department and the US Embassy in Islamabad are completely in the dark, something that numerous officials of the State Department both in Washington, DC and in Islamabad have pointed out in our private discussions. Also, recent articles in Foreign Policy by Vali Nasr, who was the senior advisor to Mr Richard Holbrooke, precisely validates the entire argument. What is, however, unfortunate is that the foreign policy establishment in the US is still more comfortable dealing with the Pakistan military directly. Despite whatever criticism that appears in the US media on the Pakistan military, there is still tremendous trust within the US establishment that the only institution that will serve the interests of the US in Pakistan is perhaps the Pakistan military. The parliament of 340 National Assembly members in Pakistan is a nightmare that the US wants to avoid when it is engaged in a war in Afghanistan, and covert war in Pakistan.
All this does not translate into a grand design behind this entire scheme. If we look at it from the perspective of the people who are involved in the decision making of this covert war, it makes complete sense to keep the entire drone war a covert programme. After all, the threat posed by the terrorists is not a fantasy. The threat is real, and thriving, and there is no doubt that the drone strikes have indeed killed the most dangerous militants who were a threat to both the US and Pakistan. However, the covert nature has its costs, and the foremost is that it is highly undemocratic, and could lead to a severe abuse of power, especially in a country like Pakistan. However, in matters of foreign policy and warfare, not everything can be revealed to the public, so as not to jeopardise the war effort. The decision makers have to strike a balance between the covert nature of the programme, and the domestic social and political repercussions. What, however, needs to change now, and which will perhaps be better for the US and the Pakistan military in the long run is to carefully open up the covert programme to the civilian government and institutions, as the programme is being wounded down as the US prepares to exit from Afghanistan. Especially in Pakistan, the PML-N government must not be kept in the shadows. If Nawaz Sharif is smart, he will solve the drone strikes issue, not by shooting them or negotiating with the US, but instead by cutting down the secret back door channels between the military and the US foreign policy establishment. The transparency of the Pakistan army’s relations with the US will not only allow a better conclusion on the issue of the drone strikes, but will also permanently end any future covert adventures in the country.
The writer is a lecturer at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad. He is also an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), Kings College, London. He can be reached at [email protected]