Will November prove to be the cruellest month of all? The outcome depends on the answers to some burning questions. Will the COAS, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, go home on November 29, 2022, as he has pledged several times? Will Imran Khan’s much-touted long march of thousands end with a whimper or a bang? Will Imran Khan and Shehbaz Sharif enter into negotiations to end the civil strife by setting a mutually acceptable date for the next general elections? What role will the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Bandial play in mediating or exacerbating political conflict?
It is a matter of days now but General Bajwa’s departure is still clouded by the reluctance of the PDM government to announce his successor. Just as rumours abounded earlier about Imran Khan’s offer of an extension to the COAS in exchange for help in defeating the vote of no-confidence against him launched by the opposition in March – now proven true – it is no secret that the PDM leadership would like to scratch his back in exchange for help in warding off the looming threat from the PTI. Even Imran Khan has suggested that if the PDM government can be packed off this month and caretakers installed, General Bajwa may stay on as COAS until after the elections have returned a new government to office. Thus, despite his avowed “apolitical” stance, if push comes to shove, during the PTI’s long march, it is not inconceivable that General Bajwa may be “compelled” to step in, pry apart the two warring sides, knock some sense into them and gain an extension in tenure by virtue of his “good deed.” That would open the door to an early election rather than a late one.
Much will, therefore, depend on how Imran Khan’s long march pans out in the next week or two. It has begun on a soft note, partly because Imran knows that, after the DGISI’s unprecedented public intervention, the Miltablishment could take off its gloves if he crosses their red lines again, and partly because he is still hoping that the PDM government will succumb to the threat of violence and open the door to negotiations that fulfil his objectives. Both sides are propagating their intent to fight despite admitting pressure to talk.
General Bajwa’s departure is still clouded by the reluctance of the PDM government in announcing his successor.
Significantly, too, PTI is begging CJP Bandial to take their side. Imran Khan wants to march and the PDM government wants to stop him in his tracks. Khan insists his marchers will remain peaceful, but Rana Sanaullah, the interior minister, has offered evidence of the PTI’s intentions to incite violence. The CJP, on the other hand, says that the PTI has a right to march but notes his power to stop it at any time. The threat of blocking the acquittal of Maryam Nawaz and outlawing the amended NAB law that has reprieved the top leaders of the PDM has sent the government scurrying for compromise, even to the extent of sacrificing its law minister, Azam Tarar, who was compelled to vote in favour of CJP Bandial’s nominees in the Judicial Commission against the interests of the bar, which he has long represented.
The double irony built into the situation should not be lost on us, too. Even as the army high command is insisting that it has become apolitical and neutral and intends to stay that way in the future, the PTI is knocking on its door for salvation, by threatening and cajoling them.
The other irony lies in the nature of the unprecedented popular attack on the army’s political interventionism launched by Imran Khan. In normal circumstances, this would be viewed as a belated but welcome development to strengthen constitutional democracy. Indeed, this is the common thread running through the long struggles of liberals, leftists, democrats, human and women’s rights groups and ethnic/sub-nationalist, religious minorities on the periphery. The problem has arisen because the current struggle for “real liberation” led by the PTI is not aimed at defanging the army to strengthen multi-party constitutional democracy but at sharpening its claws to clamp down on the PTI’s political opponents to entrench populist one-party fascism.
The writer is a former Special Assistant to PM (Benazir Bhutto); Member (National Finance Commission) and Convener (Movement for the Restoration of Democracy)