Recent tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) have shattered hopes of improving the relationship between India and Pakistan. Many hopes were nurtured of improving bilateral relations after the change of governments in Pakistan and India in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Contrary to expectations, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has formulated an aggressive policy towards Pakistan. Though cross-border firing along the LoC has continued from time to time despite being a violation of the 2003 ceasefire agreement, it has intensified significantly under the Modi government, resulting in dozens of civilian casualties. Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC were the victims of heavy bombardment this October. The Hindustan Times reported that in a single day, on October 9, Indian forces fired more than a thousand mortar shells into Azad Kashmir. Indian estimates say that the heavy firing killed 35 civilians in Azad Kashmir and 20 civilians in Indian Held Kashmir. Given the intensity of the crisis, the actual death toll is likely to be much higher.
The current crisis in bilateral relations started with the Indian government’s cancellation of a meeting scheduled to be held in August between the foreign secretaries of the two countries. This was allegedly in response to the Pakistani High Commissioner in New Delhi meeting Hurriyat leaders before the talks began. India termed the meeting as being “interference” in internal Indian affairs. There was nothing unusual about the High Commissioner meeting Hurriyat leaders as such meetings have been a longstanding Pakistani practice and was accepted and even facilitated by successive Indian governments, including the previous BJP government that was in power from 1998 to 2003. This volte-face is being seen as an attempt to rewrite the rules of engagement with Pakistan. Denying Kashmiri leaders a legitimate role in the composite dialogue between India and Pakistan is bound to further complicate an already complex set of issues. The BJP’s manifesto has a provision for abrogating or revising Article 370 of the Indian Constitution that grants Kashmir a special status while limiting the Indian parliament’s law making powers with regard to Jammu and Kashmir.
Earlier, during his visit to Ladakh, Prime Minister (PM) Modi accused Pakistan of waging a “proxy war” in India’s only Muslim majority province. In response, Pakistan has been aggressively countering India’s claim that Kashmir remains an integral part of India. The most recent interaction between the two sides was between the Pakistani and Indian delegations at the UN General Assembly. Responding to an Indian delegate’s comments regarding State Assembly elections in Kashmir, Pakistani delegates asserted that the people of Kashmir had rejected these elections and that UN resolutions had clarified that elections in Kashmir conducted by Indian authorities would not be a substitute for a free and impartial plebiscite conducted under the auspices of the UN. There have already been numerous protests in the Kashmir Valley against the proposed State elections.
Elections in Kashmir could be an important factor in Modi’s rhetoric as the Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced that it will hold State elections in Kashmir sometime during the next two months. The BJP aspires to garner votes in Jammu and Ladakh by replacing the Congress and National Conference alliance. As usual, the Pakistan factor was highlighted by the BJP though the rhetoric seemed specially made for Kashmir, where making negative references to Pakistan makes political sense. When running election campaigns in other Indian states, Modi does not play the Pakistan card as India has a number of problems of its own that can be used to appeal to voters.
The BJP government had the opportunity to resume the dialogue process with Pakistan but seems more concerned about playing a hegemonic role in the South Asian region. Speculation about improving trade ties, energy cooperation and expanding the comprehensive dialogue on water and environmental issues has become a distant reality. The dialogue process could have been initiated by addressing these less contentious issues since Kashmir is the core issue between the two states. The political rhetoric of BJP leaders and a new coercive policy towards Pakistan have damaged bilateral relations. The deteriorating situation has now been noticed by Indian analysts as well who have criticised the BJP government for a disproportionate show of force that has brought India-Pakistan relations to their lowest ebb in a decade. The BJP, with its goal of rapid economic growth in India as enunciated in its election manifesto, does not seem to realise that prosperity and regional peace remain hostage to the bilateral relations of the two most important regional players.
The writer works at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and can be reached at [email protected]