The opportunity cost of nuclear weapons is a thought-provoking concept in Pakistan, North Korea and India where the development of nuclear weapons takes place against a backdrop of prevalent poverty and unmet basic needs. Therefore, some prominent nuclear physicists in Pakistan i.e. Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy and Dr A H Nayyar insist that the development of nukes by Pakistan is a main source of its economic deprivation and paranoia. For them, the nuclear testing of 1998 was the main reason behind the economic crises in Pakistan. This is exactly a guns versus butter debate, a selection between taking care of the people who serve or the equipment they need to contest and prevail in current and future conflicts.
Nuclear weapons and the debate on the necessity for such weapons have persisted for several years. The more opinions against it, the more and more countries yearn to possess these weapons and demonstrate their power. So we have to discover those benefits that are of such significance for a country to prefer to divert huge finances from the public sector to become a nuclear capable state.
The rationale of developing nuclear weapons was that Pakistan must have self-reliance to ensure its security. After the hefty losses in the 1948 and 1965 wars and the debacle of 1971, the Pakistani leadership comprehended that no country of great power was going to support Pakistan in a time of crisis against any Indian aggression. Therefore, self-reliance was the crucial idea of Pakistan’s policymakers to make sure that only Pakistan should be responsible for defending itself against any Indian offensive. We must understand that being a nuclear power is crucial for our survival and sovereignty. Preserving and improving national security is vital to the national interest and expenses from the state budget in support of this objective are permissible.
For a country like Pakistan, having the nuclear bomb means that it has the ultimate strategic defence. Wars are bad for the economy and nuclear deterrence is a tool used to avoid wars. A short conventional war between India and Pakistan would cost Islamabad $ 350 million a day. Now one can easily estimate the economic deprivation if Pakistan had to face another 1971 debacle without having any nuclear weapons. In contrast to conventional warfare, nuclear deterrence has made wars between nuclear states rationally non-viable.
The possession of nuclear weapons serves not only military and political but also economic functions. The acquisition of nuclear weapons appears to be associated with long-term decline in conventional military spending. This is acutely accurate in the case of Pakistan. Pakistan’s conventional military expenditure has constantly declined right after the nuclear tests. Military expenditure (percentage of GDP) in Pakistan was measured at 5.3 percent in 1998, according to the World Bank. In 2012, that expenditure was 3.13 percent. This is a clear instance where nuclear capability served as a major cause behind diminishing military expenditure in Pakistan.
Moreover, we have to not forget that Pakistan’s nuclear establishment is also progressive in the peaceful use of nuclear technology. Use of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, especially in the energy sector can generate some of the largest economic benefits due to their size and the number of workers needed to operate the nuclear plants. The 100 nuclear units in the US are generating substantial domestic economic value in electricity sales and revenue by up to $ 40-$ 50 billion each year. Canada’s nuclear energy industry has revenues of about $ 6.6 billion. Pakistan can also achieve the same feat by the extent of civilian benefits from nuclear weapons spending.
Pakistan has experience in operating nuclear technology, spanning over four decades. Pakistan has the qualified manpower and professionals and it is now constructing a fourth and fifth nuclear power plant. Pakistan has reached a remarkable milestone in scientific research by becoming an associate member of the European Council for Nuclear Research (CERN). Pakistan can utilise nuclear science and technologies for its national programmes for the benefit and improvement of society, especially in the energy sector. Thus, Pakistan will be able to facilitate other countries in the region in peaceful uses of nuclear energy and this cooperation will generate revenue to stabilise our economy.
The constructive uses of nuclear science are visible in applied sciences, food, agriculture, biotechnology, human health, energy and industry. Today, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) has numerous institutes to render facilities for research and development in these benign areas. The major institutes that are performing research in nuclear physics are the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH), Nuclear Institute of Agriculture (NIA), Nuclear Institute of Agriculture and Biology (NIAB), Nuclear Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), National Institute for Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE) and National Institute of Lasers and Optronics (NILOP). These institutes are sharing their part in social inspiration.
I feel wrought up when people ask what is the use of being a nuclear power when people are dying of poverty. It is a fact that social development should be the first and primary focus but cutting down on our nuclear budget is not the answer. We have to understand that Pakistan’s economic deprivation is not because of its nuclear weapons but that these weapons are the source that provides channels to take economic strides and develop. Hence, economic progress can also be achieved as Pakistan accomplished its nuclear feat; all we need is devotion and sincerity of purpose.
The writer is an M Phil student in the department of Strategic Studies, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad