One of the major issues preoccupying the world, especially Europe, is the influx of refugees, particularly from the Middle East and northern Africa. This has been caused in large part by a mix of internal factors, external intervention, religious extremism in some Muslim countries and the interplay of regional rivalries with strong sectarian overtones as between Shia Iran and Sunni (Wahhabi) Saudi Arabia. On top of it all is an overlay of people’s mounting economic and social frustrations, often finding an outlet in religious extremism represented by Islamic State (IS) and other militant groups, when everything else seems to have failed. A classic example is the monumental failure of the Arab Spring that swept a number of Arab countries, early in the decade, to overthrow dictatorships. The resultant vacuum is being filled by religious extremism belonging to folk like IS.
Egypt is another example where a return of military dictatorship, disguised as civilian rule, is being challenged both by the Muslim Brotherhood and a version of IS, operating mostly in Sinai where they claimed to have downed a civilian Russian aircraft killing all its 224 passengers as an act of revenge against the Russian bombing of IS and other extremist targets in Syria. And a failed state in Libya is a free-for-all for all sorts of militias, including a version of IS. While Iraq’s Shia regime, with considerable help from the US by way of aerial bombing of IS targets, weapons’ supplies and training of troops, as well as from Iran, is unsuccessfully battling it out with IS, the regional situation seems to be getting worse by the day. The Saudi bombing of Yemen to defeat the Houthi rebels, who overthrew the regime supported and aided by Saudi Arabia, is only adding to an already complex and bloody situation.
The situation in Syria is probably the worst, with almost half its population (about 11 million) displaced, with four million as refugees in camps in neighbouring countries, like Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, and a large number also on the move to seek refuge in Europe. According to press reports, close to one million entered Europe seeking asylum. And this is likely to get worse by the end of 2016, considering the way the Syrian situation is going. Germany seems to be the favourite destination. There are said to be 60 million people globally seeking refuge.
We knew even before refugees hit Europe in large numbers that the conflicts raging in the Middle East and elsewhere were creating human misery that seemed to defy any solution. But with important and rich European countries now directly affected, there is greater recognition of it. Will it make any difference? Probably not. There is already a hardening of attitudes, even among well-meaning politicians in Europe, as it takes a toll politically with people turning more and more against refugees. The hard right in European countries is capitalising on the people’s mistrust of Muslims because of their religion, which many people in those countries have increasingly come to identify with terrorism since the 9/11 attacks in the US. And the recent Paris carnage has added fuel to the fire. The continuing chaos in the Middle East, with the rise of IS, is only magnifying the situation.
All this tends to work on historical memory when the Ottoman Empire reached the European periphery. Some of the smaller European countries, which are the gateways to Germany, where many refugees are seeking asylum, fear their culture, religion and Christian way of life will be threatened by these newcomers. In other words, Europe is faced with a huge challenge.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called it the “the next great European project” and bigger than the Greek debt crisis. It might be recalled that the Greek debt crisis and threat from it to the euro as a common currency was, until recently, the staple of news in Europe and featured prominently in the world’s media. It is still not sorted out but somehow is not as much in the news. How Europe will deal with the refugee influx has the potential of making and/or breaking the European Union. In other words, the flow of refugees is a global crisis. Though it is causing the most havoc where it is originating from, like in Syria and neighbouring countries, it has the potential of unravelling the European project. EU countries are already at odds with each other about controlling borders and the allocation of refugee numbers to member countries and so on. At the same time, there is no knowing where the number of refugees will stabilise, if at all. There are so many unknowns and hence the difficulty of any kind of planning.
The only effective way of dealing with the refugee crisis is to create security and stability in the countries of origin. But any of these hot spots, like Syria, Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, look likely to go on with no real resolution. It is tempting to blame local factors but external intervention has and continues to play a major role. It started with the Afghan and Iraq wars; these two countries are still reeling from the aftermath of those US-led invasions, creating waves of refugees, But they were not regarded as a major problem for the world because many of them trekked to neighbouring Pakistan and Iran, which do not have the kind of clout Europe has.
Syria is another story because a large number, approaching one million, are heading to Europe. And the situation in Syria keeps getting worse with the IS threat looming large over Iraq and Syria. The recent international conference in Vienna did not even get a serious start, with the US, Saudi Arabia and others insisting that Russia should facilitate Assad’s fall before things could move ahead, though the US now seems inclined to see him in a transitional role to facilitate an alternative. It is not clear, though, how Assad’s fall would miraculously create a more secure and stable order in that country. As happens with international gatherings, the Vienna process is also likely to become an instrument of power play, where the real issue of Syria’s misery, death and destruction of its people seems lost. In that situation, the refugees from Syria and other trouble spots in the Middle East and elsewhere will continue to take chances with their lives, and the route from Turkey to the Greek islands and further on to Germany and Northern Europe, is likely to remain attractive as people smugglers and traffickers enrich themselves from the misery of God’s forsaken people. Turkey is being enlisted by the EU to help stem the tide of refugees to Europe with the financial inducement of billions of dollars, as well as helping its induction into Europe. But such solutions are half-baked, dealing only with the symptoms and not the source of the malady.
The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at [email protected]