Pakistani politics is full of contradictions that follow the dictum of permanent interests rather than permanent allies or enemies. Those who, metaphorically, grabbed each other by the collars are now sitting together on a single platform and running the country’s affairs under a setup akin to a national government.
Whereas, the Imran Khan-led former ruling party is focusing on street politics meant to shake up the system, which, from its point of view, has committed “grave injustice.” It’s another debate whether this is the right call but he does enjoy immense popularity in the masses seemingly which no one in the power corridors can choose to ignore.
Indeed, his popularity decreased not long ago but the unusual political drama since early March resulted in his influence going off the charts, which is a major concern for the PDM alliance. The pulse of the country is polarised to the point where a majority of urban and a significant portion of the rural youth support his ideology blindly.
Though the main narrative about his ouster is based on an alleged conspiracy orchestrated by Washington, there is no hard evidence to support this theory. Similar views were shared by renowned political scientist Dr Noam Chomsky when I emailed him a couple of days ago. However, he did not rule out “any possibility.” Even the two press releases shared by the National Security Committee (NSC) were not categoric in dispelling the impression created by the PTI’s interpretation of the embassy cable message. Some of the contents were confirmed by the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar in one of her media interviews.
The political situation is indeed tenuous in the country, with the possibility of simmering tensions getting out of hand anytime.
The United States and Pakistan are amongst the oldest allies yet ties have remained transactional rather than being based on mutual admiration and respect built over decades. Pragmatically speaking, Islamabad cannot afford to cut off ties with its largest trading partner in the West, but then again, the Biden Administration and Khan’s team remained on frosty terms owing to divergent views on underlying security issues.
Earlier this week, I availed an opportunity on Twitter Space to ask former Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi about the reasons for the sharp nosedive in Islamabad-Washington ties ever since the new administration took over, last year. He pointed out the alleged role played by staffers from the Obama Administration in ignoring Islamabad under a “hangover” influenced by past negative perceptions. He further added that a policy to contain Beijing allowed New Delhi to gain prominence for Washington’s movers and shakers.
Although he did mention that Afghanistan remains a key point of convergence with Islamabad, he said that it wasn’t sustainable for the new administration to maintain healthy ties owing to changed priorities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Notably, he added that the Containment of China policy is a bipartisan strategic decision. Thus, in his opinion, the PDM government’s ability to maintain bilateral relations in a better way is yet to be seen.
All said, the political situation is indeed tenuous in the country, with the possibility of simmering tensions getting out of hand anytime. The next couple of weeks could further add to political uncertainty and accentuate the polarisation.
The writer is Associate Editor (Diplomatic Affairs), Daily Times. He tweets @mhassankhan06