A significant component of the Chinese government’s investment in Pakistan via the China Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC) is its development of Pakistan’s energy potential. Specifically, 2.8 billion dollars for developing four coal-fired stations with a capacity of 1,980 megawatts and 2.2 billion dollars for two coal-mining blocks in Thar have been pledged.
Many in the energy-deficient and populous Pakistan consider this investment a blessing. Members of the parliamentary committee on the CPEC have hailed the investment in Thar coal as “the energy future of Pakistan”, highlighting the employment potential that these power plants and coal mines would generate through the construction phase and then during operation. Estimated to be completed by 2018, the Thar power plants and surface coal mines are expected, along with other coal projects in Port Qasim, to solve Pakistan’s energy crisis.
Experts suggest that Pakistan’s faulty ‘energy mix’ in terms of electricity generation is partially to blame for the energy deficit. Currently, oil (35.2 percent), hydel (29.9), gas (29) and nuclear and imported (5.8) are the principal sources of electricity-generation. Currently, the electricity-generation capacity of Pakistan stands at 22,797 MW, and with an average demand of 17,000 MW, the shortfall lies between 4,000 and 5,000 MW, which is expected to increase manifold in the coming years as the population expands by almost two percent annually. The economic impact — particularly on Pakistan’s industrial sector — of the energy crisis is increasingly coming to light, and dissuading foreign investment, something which the current government is keen on. It is clear that Pakistan is desperate for a solution to its energy crisis but what would be the cost of that to the climate?
Of late, there has been much celebration of Pakistan’s ‘huge’ reserves of coal, as the country is home to the seventh largest coal reserves in the world. Although this is disputed by analysts, the value of the coal in Thar is largely determined by what type of coal it is, which in this case is lignite.
Coal is by no means a homogenous term and, in fact, can be categorised or ranked according to the degree to which the original plant material has been transformed into carbon, i.e. the older the coal is, the higher the carbon content, and the higher the carbon content, the lower the emissions. The ranking of coal, therefore, from most to least carbon content are: anthracite, bituminous coal, subbituminous coal, and lignite. In general, lignite is known for its low energy content, around eight to 10 megajoules per kilogram, compared to almost 32 megajoules per kilogram for anthracite. This means that you would have to burn almost four times as much lignite for the same amount of energy you would get from anthracite. Pakistan’s coal reserves in Thar are almost exclusively comprised of lignite, known to be the dirtiest of the dirty fossil fuels.
One of the questions that invariably arises when the discussion on power-generation and Pakistan’s coal reserves in Thar are considered is that if the country is ‘blessed’ with these vast reserves of coal, why not use them? Putting environmental concerns of the combustion of lignite aside, the power-generation from lignite is economically unfeasible. Taking into consideration the vast amounts of lignite that must be burnt in order to generate electricity and adding the costs of extraction, transportation and conversion, the net benefit from coal combustion is negligible. Due to its high moisture content and susceptibility to spontaneous combustion, lignite is too expensive to transport, and, resultantly, not traded in large quantities on the world market. The propensity towards spontaneous combustion also makes its extraction hazardous for the labour force involved.
Additionally, one of the common methods for the extraction of coal is known as ‘strip mining’, which uses large amounts of water, depending on the methods used, to extract the coal from the ground. This may range anywhere between 10 to 150 gallons per ton of coal extracted. Although Pakistan is an energy-stressed country, it is even more so a thirsty country, and speedily climbing up the ranks of the most water-stressed nations of the world. Using its precious water reserves to mine coal is a questionable step.
And finally, it is important to recognise that at the end of the day, the Thar coal reserves are not infinite. They will, as all fossil fuels do, run out one day, as we have seen in the case of the Sui Gas reserves in Balochistan. Thar’s coal reserves may provide a short-term respite from Pakistan’s energy crisis, but it is by no means a long-term solution.
As the world divests from coal, and with hopes high following the commitment by world leaders of almost 3.4 trillion dollar divestment from coal following the Climate Change Conference (COP) 21 in Paris, Pakistan continues to build upon its existing coal-powered infrastructure and adding to it, not only in Thar but also in Port Qasim in Karachi. Granted, the CPEC also includes the development of renewables, such as the 1.6 billion dollar hydropower project in Karot, the 1.2 billion solar power park in Bahawalpur, and the 260 million dollar 100 megawatt wind-farm in Jhimpir; however, these are dwarfed by its investment in the lignite reserves in Thar.
Critics have been quick to point out that China may be transferring its outdated coal technologies to Pakistan, while it upgrades to better, cleaner ones. Indeed, China has committed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) at COP 21 to reduce its carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) by 60 to 65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, and increase its share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent by the same year. While China is investing in renewables domestically, its foreign investment does not necessarily reflect this commitment.
This may be due to Pakistan’s own weak stance on the issue. Pakistan submitted a vague two-page INDC, which does not set out a specific target for emissions reductions to the UNFCCC at the Paris Climate Talks last year, and has not yet developed a revised energy or climate policy based on the vast changes that are expected to take place following the advent of the CPEC. Although the noise made by those suffering as a result of Pakistan’s energy deficit is loud, and justified, it is equally important for government of Pakistan to ensure that its investment in dirty energy will not make the problem worse. The investment in Thar coal is a huge commitment, and we must be prepared to bear the consequences for decades to come.
The writer is a climate change practitioner, and a freelance columnist on climate-related issues