The cat’s pretty much out of the bag now that Punjab Assembly Speaker, and for all intents and purposes, still a crucial government ally, Chaudhary Parvez Elahi has revealed that the opposition has more than the required number of lawmakers in the bag to send the government packing. “This is what we have assessed and seen,” he said in a widely watched TV program on Tuesday, just after confirming, more or less, that “they have the required number” and also warning that “plenty of surprises are in store.” That puts recent comments from senior government leaders, including the PM, that all allies were firmly in its camp in a whole new light. In fact, Elahi appeared pretty unhappy with the way PTI has interacted with its coalition partners in the last three-and-a-half years; going to the extent of saying that the ruling party never learned how to build relationships and instead “ruined things with everyone, including its own people.” Apparently, the Chaudharys have been offered everything they wanted by the opposition, including the Punjab CM position for Parvez Elahi as well as seat adjustment–the elixir of life for small political parties that survive by making alliances, etc. Elahi also very wisely cautioned PTI, as well as the opposition, against their planned power shows in Islamabad just before the vote for no-confidence in the national assembly. The last thing the country needs is for this bitter government-opposition confrontation to spill out onto the streets. Yet it beggars belief that that is exactly what the ruling party is posturing for, even though it can gather not one million, but many millions of people on D-chowk and it still wouldn’t make any difference to proceedings in the house since it’s the magic number of 172 lawmakers that will tilt the balance over there. All things considered, the Chaudharys of Gujrat have played their cards very well. Despite having only a handful of seats, they have become the central talking point in the no-confidence narrative. And in all probability, it is the direction they lean towards that would decide the fate of this government. From the look of things so far, the opposition’s gameplan seems to have a better chance of succeeding. *