Pakistan needs to brace itself. The blowback from Afghanistan looks set to hit even before the carte blanche American drawdown begins. The US itself seems to think so. Washington has identified two key threats to Afghan peace and security. The first is the very real risk that US military hardware could fall into Taliban hands once international troops exit the country. This is of enormous concern to Pakistan, especially as it has been here before. Thus, vague assurances about how military planners are using the time left until D-Day to try and “minimise that threat” is not enough. Not by a long shot. The second is the US ambassador to Kabul’s own bombshell: ISIS remains a “potent” force in the country. The US says it will continue to provide security and counter-terrorism assistance to Afghanistan but what this means in real terms is anyone’s guess. Analysts have long warned that complete withdrawal may be nothing more than a smokescreen. And that the American game plan is to export chaos from Afghanistan to China via Central Asia. This kills two birds with one stone in case placing the cat amongst the pigeons doesn’t suffice. For Central Asia is home to abundant natural resources, including natural gas. And China represents the biggest threat to US regional hegemony through CPEC (Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor). Likely still ingrained in American minds is how Beijing, during the early years of the war, paid protection money to the Taliban to keep its infrastructure projects safe. Yet any manoeuvres towards tit-for-tat would be prove a very dangerous gamble. Iran has repeatedly urged Afghanistan to send Shia fighters Syria to fight ISIS there. Some Uighurs have already fled China to take up arms alongside ISIS on the Syrian battlefield. There have also been reports of Pakistan militants doing the same. And with ISIS remaining fighting fit in Afghanistan, the entire region could go up in flames. Except that the US doesn’t want this given that it is eying access to the Central Asian Republics. Discord is what it is after. Since Pakistan has been scapegoated for far too long for the American mess across the western front – it must take the lead in curtailing any possible US designs towards this end. As a first step, it absolutely must be taken into confidence on the US Central Command chief’s military plan on how to monitor and fight terrorist groups in Afghanistan and beyond once the drawdown is complete, which will be presented to the Defence department in June. Ideally, other stakeholders such as China and Russia should also be privy to such a plan. The Biden White House cannot simply ignore this. Afghan President Ghani must also do the needful. It is the only pragmatic option. And will do far more good than floating the idea of international sanctions on Pakistan if what is left behind is a ‘hostile’ environment. After all, unlike the Taliban, ISIS has global ambitions. And the last thing this region needs is a proxy war of any sort. *