The resilient Afghans have paid a heavy price for conflict in Afghanistan. But the recent Doha Accords present a rare hope for Afghanistan and the region. The strategic and geopolitical location of Afghanistan in the heart of Asia and on the ancient Silk Route can play a vital role in the economic integration of the region. The country can serve as a linking ring of Southern and Northern Asia, Middle East and Western Asia by contributing to the region’s economic development and stability. Central Asian resources of natural gas, fuel and electricity located northwards of Afghanistan are planned to be transported to South Asian markets including Pakistan and India for domestic and industrial production. Likewise, the products like rice, poultry inputs, fresh juice, tea, fruits, vegetables, spices, agricultural implements etc. of South Asian countries can be exported to Central Asia through Afghanistan. Then, Afghanistan can play an effective role in expanding the scope of Gowadar port to the Central Asian states. In this activity of regional trade and commerce, Afghanistan can achieve its own economic development through poverty alleviation and foreign investment. This would enable Afghanistan to exploit its huge untapped deposits and minerals.
Afghanistan is already part of the various regional cooperations like Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), South Asia Association Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Regional Economic Cooperation of Afghanistan (RECCA), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and Heart of Asia etc. Let us have a look at certain regional connectivity projects related with Afghanistan that are aimed at regional economic integration.
A. Central Asia South Asia (CASA-1000): This project has been established to export surplus 1300 MW hydel energy of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan during summer. Then, via same power transmission lines of Afghanistan, the excess electricity of Pakistan during winter is being negotiated to be transmitted back to Central Asia.
B. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI): The TAPI project has been designed to ease the energy deficit of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, as the pipeline will carry 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The gas pipeline will originate from Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan connecting with Afghanistan’s Herat-Kandahar highway, then via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan ending up at Fazalka that is India’s town bordering Pakistan. The TAPI project is funded by the Asian Development Bank.
C. The Lapis Lazuli Route (CAREC Corridor #2): The Lapis Lazuli Route is an international transit route opened in 2018 and is part of Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program Transport Corridor #2. It links Afghanistan to Turkey through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Georgia in the west and stretches in the east to China through the Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The Lapis Lazuli Corridor agreement is of immense importance for creating opportunities for trade expansion and building regional connectivity.
D. East Asia-Middle East and South Asia (CAREC Corridor # 5): This corridor improves Chinese trade relations with Middle East and South Asia using Central Asia as junction. Afghanistan is crucial component of this corridor that would ensure smooth arrival of Chinese goods in Iran, Pakistan and Middle East. The corridor covers 3700 km roads and 2000 km railways. Under this corridor, Pakistan provides a vital link to the landlocked countries of Central Asia by giving access to its warm water ports of Gowardar and Karachi on Arabian Sea.
E. The Wakhan Corridor: It is a narrow strip of land situated in the north-eastern Badakhshan province of Afghanistan and is surrounded on three sides by Pakistan, Tajikistan and China. The Wakhan Corridor is flanked by the exquisite Pamir Mountains to the north and the Karakoram Range to the south, with huge economic and strategic potential. Afghanistan and China signed an MOU in 2009 for construction of a road through Wakhjir Pass of the Wakhan Corridor that would connect the recently built Karakoram Highway by linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to Islamabad. This road would represent the cheapest route extending CPEC to Central Asia while giving access to the warm waters of Gowadar.
F. Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA): It is a bilateral trade agreement signed between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2010. Its purpose is to facilitate the movement of goods between the two countries. The agreement allows both countries to use each other’s railways, airports, roads and ports for transit trade along designated transit corridors.
G. Goods in Transit to Afghanistan (GITA): It is a train service launched first time by Pakistan in February, from Karachi to the Chaman city bordering Afghanistan. GITA is a cross-border freight train that reaches the destination in 48 hours with 35 containers.
H. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Being located at the cross-roads of Central, South and South-West Asia, Afghanistan is poised to benefit from and provide benefit to China in BRI. Thus far, Afghanistan and China have undertaken a few projects, such as the Digital Silk Road, the Sino-Afghanistan Special Railway Transportation Project, the Five Nations Railway Project and a Kabul-Urumqi air corridor.
I. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Afghanistan has also increased its tilt towards the Gowadar port under CPEC for marine trade. Afghanistan, Pakistan and China are also exploring links with the CPEC that can transform Afghanistan into a regional trade and transit hub. In June, activity under Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement has been resumed, as first bulk-cargo ship “MV Manet” carrying wheat and urea of Afghan transit has reached Gowadar. This would stimulate volume of transit and trade through Afghanistan. Iran is also eager to connect its Chabahar port to Gowadar.
Above initiatives of regional connectivity and economic integration are subject to viable peace and stability in Afghanistan that must be indigenous. Only an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led reconciliation process, which recognizes Afghanistan’s political realities and diversity, could produce a lasting peace. Onset of intra-Afghan negotiations is right step in quest for a unified, independent and sovereign Afghanistan that is at peace with itself as well as its neighbours. We hope Afghanistan would be able to reap the ‘dividends of peace’ in the form of economic progress and prosperity by serving as regional hub for trade as transit.
The writer is Country Manager of a Pakistani bank in Kazakhstan, with interest in Central Asian studies. He can be reached out at [email protected].