Urban Management is a new buzz word. It has been in market for some time, but during the last few years it started to capture the policy and intellectual debate. Although, it is late entrant in Pakistani market, but it is making good progress. The event of Karachi flood has made it a word of wisdom among all stakeholders. But the question is, does urban management provide solutions for Karachi or big cities of Pakistan? The answer is yes and no at the same because it can only help to solve a tiny part of the problem. Then what is solution? The solution is new city centers.
Since the creation of the country, Pakistan has established only one new city, Islamabad, with proper planning and according to the principles of city development. Apart from that Pakistan has observed a trend of un-planned expansion of cities. There can main contributing factors, but the major factors are 1) rural-urban migration 2) rapid population growth and 3) concentration of economic activities. The migration is basically triggered by search for 1) better livelihood opportunities, 2) better services like health, education etc., 3) opportunities for upward growth, and4) natural calamities & War on terror. These are the critical factors which has been pushing urbanization in Pakistan. The rural areas could not diversify itself and could not create new economic opportunities. Besides, successive governments were not able to comprehend the rising demand for jobs and other services in rural areas, especially in the sectors of health and education. The use of machines for agriculture further created a surplus of labor, which was looking for jobs.
Pakistan needs to understand that to combat the challenge of un-planned urbanization and expansion of cities beyond their capacity is to create new economic centers
However, lack of new economic centers stands out among all the reasons. A bird eye view of Pakistan urbanization history can tell us that Pakistan keep looking toward the existing economic centers. Pakistan did not invest or think about the creation of new economic centers to cater the need of increasing population. The economic activities are concentrated in few big cities. A report by World Bank in 2014 highlighted that the urban share in National GDP is 55 percent. Another report by UN Habitat in 2018 showed that ten big cities of Pakistan contribute 95 percent in national tax revenue. Karachi alone contribute 55 percent and its share in national GDP is 25 percent. The economic and livelihood opportunities act as pull factor and resulted in un-planned migration andexpansion of cities like Karachi, Lahore, Faisalabad and now the Islamabad.
In the case of Karachi, the total area of city increased from 104.3 square kilometer in 1947 to 820.1 square kilometer in 2010. The area must have increased, as Pakistan observed worst floods from 2010 on ward. It triggered migration to Karachi from different parts of the country. The majority of migrants settled in in informal housing societies and areas. Now 50 percent population of Karachi is living informal build up areas. It has led to many problems including urban flooding is new normal. The recent flooding of Karachi has exposed the whole system. It has been estimated the loss due to recent flood in Karachi will be over 1 trillion PKR. People has lost their precious resources; houses are being impacted and shops has also been damaged in addition to life losses. People are desperately looking for the help.
The situation urges the government to take steps in short run and devise strategies for long run. In the short run government will have to look for better governance and management. The best available solution for short run would be to empower local governments. Presently, the local government are the least empowered, all across the country. Financial empowerment is the biggest problem, even after the 18th amendment, local governments are still struggling to find financial resources. Provincial governments do not seem in mood to share the financial bounty after 18th amendment. All democratic political are united to hinder the empowerment of local governments.
The long run solution is establishment of new cities. It is also according to the principles of Islam. The current statistics shows that migration trend towards cities is rising and it will continue to rise. UNDESA 2018 report showed that in 1990, there was no city more than 10 million people and there was only one city with population between 5-10 million people in Pakistan. However, in 2018, there are 2 cities with population more than 10 million. Moreover, there are 9 cities with population between 1 to 5 million and 12 cities with population between 500000 to 1 million. It is alarming situation. Besides, peri-urbanization and slums are other problems which are haunting country for some time. Peri-urbanization and slums are contributing to increase urban poverty.In 2015 World Bank pointed out that in some big cities’ poverty has entered the double digit and Quetta toped ranking with 46 percent.
The un-planned expansion has also created problems like congestion, bad environment, sanitation, health, transport and crime etc. The most recent example on this front is rising environmental problems and crimes in the city of Islamabad. Once, very peaceful, free of crime or very low intensity crime city with good quality environment, is quickly falling apart. We can find cutting of trees, building of roads and housing societies in protect areas and rising crimes. The main reason along with other factors is migration of people from periphery areas and villages for jobs. Other cities are also going through phenomenon. Moreover, it is expected that the trend of migration will be accelerated in coming years. As Pakistan has 63 percent population under the age group of 30. The median age is 22.5 years, which would be 31 years in 2050. It means, Pakistan has huge bulge of youth, which needs job and decent livelihood opportunities.
Hence, to check the expansion of cities, Pakistan needs to build new cities with economic centers. It is only viable option to stop the future inflow of migrants. Fortunately, CPEC provides an opportunity to materialize this plan. Special Economic Zones and ML-1 railway can be used build the new cities and economic centers. Pakistan should plan SEZs in such a way that it leads to creation of a new economic center and city. It is good to note that Pakistan is already planned few SEZs in such way like Rashakia SEZ. Pakistan should wok with China to look for new SEZs which can help to create new economic centers especially in backward areas like, Southern Punjab, Interior Sindh, Balochistan and Newly Merged Districts.
Second, historically it has observed that economic centers or cities emerged along the railway stations. We apply this methodology to ML-1 project. It would be good initiative for the success of ML-1 , railway and creation of new economic centers.
In the conclusion, Pakistan needs to understand that to combat the challenge of un-planned urbanization and expansion of cities beyond their capacity is to create new economic centers. If Pakistan fails to take necessary steps to create new economic centers then nothing can stop the disasters, bad environment, bad quality environment and crimes in the cities.
The writer is Director, Asia Study Center SDPI