It seems more and more likely, which each passing day, that a second wave of the novel coronavirus is inevitable. And OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) has already warned that should it come, it could knock yet another 80 million people out of work in the world’s most advanced nations. That is a terrifying number indeed, especially considering the millions upon millions of jobs that have already been lost. OECD also noted that the economic crisis stemming from the pandemic is very different from anything that has been seen before. “Up to 10 times fewer hours were worked in some countries, compared with the first few months of the 2008 financial crisis,” said its latest report, comparing trends with the last great financial disaster which came just a little over a decade ago.
If such a high number of job losses is expected in advanced countries, one can only imagine what is going to happen in less developed ones; countries just like Pakistan. That is why it made a lot of sense for Prime Minister Imran Khan to say at the ILO Global Summit on Covid-19 and the World of Work, which he addressed via video link, that the international community needs to formulate a combined strategy to protect the most vulnerable segments of society, especially labourers, from the coronavirus. Poor countries face a double whammy in this regard, since not only are their own economies getting wiped out, but economic pain in the more advanced economies is also resulting in less remittances as the virus bites deeper, compromising one of the foremost sources of income.
The other pressing problem is that unemployment almost always comes hand in hand with increased rates of poverty. Countries where a big chunk of the population lives on either side of the poverty line stand to be overwhelmed, even in the mildly bad scenarios being calculated in case of a second wave, by a sea of unemployed, underfed, poor people who have nothing to lose. How such situations can lead to out-of-control social agitation hardly needs any explanation. International financial institutions as well as rich governments should, therefore, immediately put a hold on all debt payments from poor countries to give them whatever additional fiscal space possible to prepare in advance for some of the biggest problems headed their way. *