COVID-19 infection is rising worldwide with the US on top of the most infected countries followed by Russia, the UK, Spain, Italy, Brazil, France, Germany, Turkey and Iran. These countries were reluctant on lockdown or secretively pursuing the ‘herd immunity’. But now the coronavirus is out of control in those countries despite taking all the remedial measures.
Pakistan is now the 19th most affected country with about 38,000 cases. Just in a couple of days Pakistan jumped up from the 25th position to 19th after the federal government announced easing the lockdown. Confusion and chaos still prevails as crowds are flooding the favourite shops and markets. The provincial governments have shut some of the shops on Wednesday for not following the SOPs but it is not the solution while federal government is sending across the mixed messages on strict lockdown.
Finally, it seems cat is out of the bag of the federal government. On Monday while talking to a TV channel Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar opined in favour of ‘herd immunity’, claiming that it was one of the two best possible solutions to combating the Covid-19. The other one, he said, is the vaccine that would take much longer time than expected.
Everyone in the healthcare sector believes that the federal government needs to rethink its decision on easing the lockdown
Many have hardy heard about the ‘herd immunity’ in Pakistan. May be fewer could understand what exactly it means. By definition, it is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.
Minister Asad Umar has plainly described it as infection spreading out to 70-80 per cent of the population would make them immune against the pandemic forever. Perhaps, he forgot to mention that only if the infected ones could survive of the virus. He unfortunately had no satisfactory answer to if our healthcare system has the countrywide capacity to handle at least 161 million infections (70 per cent of the total population) if the pandemic erupts like a volcano. And, God forbid, what about 3.25 million deaths in a row?
No one is ready to accept the government’s idea of herd immunity in the learned and humane circle that is a sheer stance against the strict lockdown. Every analysts and health expert is shouting for a strict lockdown since the day (February 26) the first infected person was tested positive in the country. Loud shouts are hammering on the deaf ears of the government since the day the lockdown was eased and the government reps started talking about the herd immunity citing the examples from US, UK, Italy and other European countries.
The anti-lockdown lobby has intentionally instigated religious leadership, traders and general public against the strict measures with their mixed messaging. Federal government though imposed the lockdown but opposed it in public statements provoking public to assume that COVID-19 is no serious threat. So, we hardly see any protective measures in the markets and worship places. All SOPs are being denied blatantly. Provinces with the help of respective district management and police teams are trying forcibly to implement the agreed upon SOPs and terms and conditions. These counterproductive efforts are being reacted by the traders and shopkeepers, resulting in some untoward incidents in different cities.
Inspired or influenced by the US and UK model, it seems that federal government was secretively pursuing the herd immunity model by deliberately delaying the lockdown in the first instance, and then being indecisive on its implementation and bashing the provinces trying to implement the lockdown in letter and spirit. The recent statements of the government representatives have shown their insensitivity rather insanity towards the manifold multiplication of total tally of infections and deaths. They have only ‘role model’ examples from the US and the UK to cite to testify their own policies and actions.
Many are reluctant to believe that if the government was not aware of the fundamentals of the lockdown or unaware of the positive results achieved by the countries like China that overcome the infection by restricting it to some places by strict lockdown. OK, if for a while we believe on the different nature of command and control in China that helped it in the brisk control of the infection, what we would say about Vietnam that could control over the virus with only 288 infections and no death at all. Taiwan lost only 7 lives and 440 infections before they could control the Covid-19 spread. New Zealand saved their people at the cost of 21 deaths and 1497 infections.
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the top three coronavirus infected countries in the South Asia region just for a same reason and that is lame lockdown. The rest of the countries in the region are smaller economies than the top three but they preferred to save the lives of their people by strict measures against the menace. As on Wednesday May 13, Bhutan has 11 cases and no death, Nepal 191 infections and no death, Sri Lanka 879 cases and 9 deaths, and Maldives 904 infections and 3 deaths.
Everyone in the healthcare sector believes that the federal government needs to rethink its decision on easing the lockdown, and stop immediately thinking about the ‘herd immunity’ and revert back to saving the lives of people by restricting them to their houses for at least another 6-8 weeks by hook or by crook, means at any cost, believing it the only solution to combat the Covid-19 challenge. Objective realization is expected sooner than later.
We need to realize that pandemic is still around and the army of invisible enemy is yet to be defeated. So, it’s not the moment of joy and celebration. Before the coronavirus celebrates the enormous deaths in Pakistan, public shall stay back home. Be patient than to be a patient. We don’t have sufficient medical resources to facilitate large number of patients at our hospitals. Rest assure, we will not die of hunger but Covid-19 infection.
The writer works with an Islamabad-based policy advocacy and outreach think tank