In the bye-election of PS-11 Larkana held on 17 October, Mr. Moazam Abbassi of GDA defeated the PPP candidate, Mr. Jamil Ahmed Soomro by a margin of 5500 votes. Mr. Abbassi had won the constituency in the general elections of 2018 defeating Nida Khuhro and was later de-seated by the superior court. The constituency falls in the heart of Larkana city with 130,000 votes. The bye-election generated a lot of enthusiasm when Bilawal, his sisters and some PPP stalwarts jumped in the fray to bolster the election campaign of the PPP candidate.
This reflected the importance of the PS-11 for the PPP. It forms the core part of NA-1 Larkana from where Late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had defeated Muhammad Ayub Khuhro securing over hundred thousand votes as compared to 28,000 tally of his opponent in 1970. The senior Bhutto was returned from the constituency unopposed in the elections of 1977. Moulana Jan Muhammad Abbassi of Jamaat Islami was not allowed by the divisional administration to file his papers against Bhutto though he was not expected to poll more than few thousand votes. After Bhutto, the constituency had gone to Begum Nusrat.
Benazir Bhutto contested from NA-2 Larkana which was originally held by her uncle Mumtaz Ali Bhutto. Shahid Bhutto -a cousin of Benazir Bhutto, Late Ayaz Soomro and Nisar Khuhro contested from NA-1 Larkana in the past three elections, whereas Faryal Talpur contested from NA-2 Larkana in the elections of 2008 and 2013 after the martyrdom of Benazir Bhutto. In 2018, Bilawal contested his maiden election from NA-1 Larkana. Therefore, any setback in the constituency would have been a direct vote of no-confidence in the leadership of Bilawal and the loss of the Bhutto magic. This prompted Bilawal and the senior PPP leadership to stir the party apparatus to win the constituency. Waderas and community leaders were wooed, Pirs, Sajadahnashins and tribal chiefs lined up, the district and local council officials pressurized and funds squandered generously to regain the constituency. But all these strenuous efforts could not mollify the anger and anguish of the voters of Larkana.
The question is why the urban voter of the city has turned against the PPP? The martyrdom of Benazir Bhutto deprived the party of a charismatic leadership. She had strenuously kept her father’s tradition of bonding with the masses and workers of the party partaking their moments of sorrow and happiness. Her attitude to workers was that of an affectionate sister without any iota of insincerity or hypocrisy. The local leadership felt compelled to follow her practice. The Zardaris do not have the charisma and popularity that Benazir was privileged to enjoy. They were never accepted by the voter and the party workers as the true inheritors of the Bhuttos. No Bhutto was awarded party ticket in Sindh in 2018. This was indicative of Zardaris’ intentions to marginalize Bhuttos politically and exclude them from the party.
The senior Bhutto used to say the loss of Lyari would be the end of PPP. Now, the danger of political doom looms large in Larkana also
The tales of their corruption were not lost on Larkana voter. The neglect of Larkana city has been proverbial. The roads are broken; drainage system is in a shamble with the sewage water overflowing and inundating homes and shops in low lying areas. There was talk of huge allocations of funds for the development of the city but nothing had actualized on the ground. The condition of healthcare has been worse. The adjoining tehsil of Ratodero was hit by an epidemic of HIV in the beginning of the year affecting over thousand children and adults with no drugs available for their treatment. The people have been dying of rabies and snake bites with hospitals being short of vaccines. During the election campaign two videos became viral on the social media showing two poor patients lying on the footpath close to the main hospital suffering from deep septic wounds in their foot and leg with worms creeping all over the affected parts.
The Zardaris had assembled the influential and flattering waderas around them neglecting the voters. They patronized them hoping that they would herd the voters to polling booths on the election eve. Certain communities were totally neglected though they had substantial pockets of votes. One such community is that of Brohi tribe. The Brohi vote far exceeds 7000 in the constituency. The local PPP leadership only patronized two waderas from the nearby constituency expecting them to deliver Brohi votes. This time, the Sindh Brohi Itehad (SBI) called a grand meeting of the Brohi community and persuaded them to take a decision by majority for the demonstration of their collective electoral strength independent of waderas. Mir Muzaffar Brohi was on the ground to coordinate with the community. Their decision went against the PPP. The PPP was actually contesting against the collective anger and anguish of voters or the political awareness of Larkana voters.
The second defeat of the PPP in the constituency will have far reaching impact on the future politics of Larkana. It indicates the sea change in the political thinking of the social media savvy young urban electorate seemingly having shaken out of the Bhutto magic shifting to issued-based politics. It clearly reflects the failure of the Bilawal and Aseefa cards. The voter of Larkana is convinced that Zardaris have showcased the children of Benazir Bhutto to mask their misdeeds of loot and plunder. I had written as early as in 2015 that Bilawal would fail to resuscitate the party unless he relegates his father and aunt to political obscurity and stridently improves the governance of the party in Sindh.
The defeat of the party upends the politics of Khuhros in Larkana and puts in doldrums the electoral position of the young Bilawal. He had faced heavy odds in winning his seat from Larkana. This defeat would certainly increase his electoral woes in the future. The senior Bhutto used to say the loss of Lyari would be the end of PPP. Now, the danger of political doom looms large in Larkana also. Quo Vadis Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books