The US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are gradually pushing ahead in an offensive towards Raqqa, the IS de facto capital in northern Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have wrapped up the first phase of their operation against the IS, which is named ‘Euphrates Wrath” according to SDF military sources. The first phase of the “Euphrates Wrath” aimed to isolate Raqqa from its northern countryside. This was accomplished by securing the towns of Tel al-Samn and Hazima, which link Ain Issa city with Suluk District. The operation’s long-term objective is to isolate and eliminate the Islamic State in Raqqa. The current battlefield strategy is to first bomb the IS fighting positions inside Al-Raqqa city and also destroy weapons storehouses and lines of communication while eliminating the top IS battlefield commanders. Stage Two, which is currently underway, would be to enforce a full blockade of the city and prevent any arms or fighters from reaching Raqqa. Step Three would be to march on Al-Raqqa. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are Kurdish-led and comprise of about 30,000 local fighters, 20,000 of whom are Kurdish and the rest Sunni Arabs.
Most of the major territorial losses of the IS in Syria, may they be in Kobane, Tal Abyad or Manbij, were at the hands of the Kurds. People’s Protection Units (YPG) that liberated the Kurdish regions of northeastern Syria have proved to be the most effective force against the IS. They liberated some 20,000 square kilometres from the extremists since 2015. The IS that once had direct access to the Turkish border has now shrunk to its core in Syria, stretching from Raqqa to Deir Ez-zour. Against this background, the SDF clearly has an upper hand. The battle for Raqqa that overlaps with the major ongoing battle for Mosul in Iraq clearly indicates that the days of Daesh as we knew are coming to an end. Slowly but surely, the IS empire of terrorism, rape and murder is about to be liberated. It is fitting that the plan to subdue it in Raqqa is named after the river that the IS used to spread itself like cancer across Syria and Iraq in 2014. Located on the northeast bank of the River Euphrates, Raqqa was the first provincial capital in either Syria or Iraq that the group had captured. It has been the administrative centre of the group’s so-called caliphate–even more than Mosul–and the city from which terror attacks against West are planned. Liberating Raqqa from the IS is also important because it will not only destroy its capital but the “caliphate” as a whole. It also counters the concept of the capital that implies the existence of the IS.
The control of Raqqa and its province has supplied the IS with a considerable source of revenue, from the sale of oil from the nearby Al-Habari and Al-Thawra oil fields and from cash that the group has demanded from the Assad regime in Damascus in return for the electric power generated by the Euphrates and Baath dams. For the IS, the loss of Raqqa would be a devastating blow. The city not only has symbolic value as the capital of the group’s so-called caliphate but is also an important hub for transporting people and supplies. Raqqa sits on the Euphrates River and is a key to controlling several strategic highways in Syria. Without it, the IS would have a much harder time moving fighters and goods from Aleppo province to the eastern Syria and beyond. Instead, it would be forced to rely on the Resafa-Ash Shola road, which is increasingly threatened by the Syrian government’s advances toward Deir el-Zour. Given the city’s significance to the IS operations in Syria, the group can be expected to funnel substantial resources and reinforcements toward its defence. In addition to sending more fighters to Raqqa, the IS would likely launch counterattacks along the SDF’s other front lines, including al-Hasaka, in an effort to distract its foe. However, the IS will be at a disadvantage. While the SDF is focusing most of its attention on attacking the jihadist group, the IS has to contend with the Syrian rebels, Syrian government forces, Kurdish peshmerga and Iraqi forces. Devoting additional attention and resources to Raqqa when it is already overstretched will inevitably hurt the extremist group elsewhere on the battlefield. Driving the IS terrorists from their stronghold will not be easy or cheap, but if successful, the SDF will greatly accelerate the group’s defeat in Syria.
Although the IS will continue to win battles and take villages and towns, the extremist group’s peak in Syria is clearly past. The group’s strength will diminish despite its nominal gains. Even so, the IS and similar groups will never fade completely as long as Sunni grievances persist. Full eradication of the IS, however, will require accomplishing the less tangible task of turning the population against it–something that can happen only if Syria’s civil war is resolved. As Jihadists in Syria are thriving on the instability of conflict zones and the gaps in government authority.
The author is a columnist for Middle-East and Af-Pak region and Editor of a geopolitical news agency, Views Around. He can be reached at [email protected]