The arms race during the Cold War had brought the United States and the former Soviet Union to the brink of catastrophe as an agreement on nuclear weapons failed to emerge. Today, several treaties and agreements are helping them avert another dreadful era of unconstrained nuclear weapons development. There can be no justificaiton to dismantling the agreements that have brought us stability and peace.
In 2010, the then US president Barack Obama and the then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev had made a commitment “to further reduce the role and importantce of nuclear weapons” and signed The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (commonly known as New START). The treaty, a successor to START I, expands on commitments enumerated in START I which was signed in 1991 to reduce the number of weapons and putting certain constrains on nuclear weapons development.
New START was not groundbreaking in the sense of introducing some unprecedented ideas but the scope of restrictions made it important. The Russian Federation and the United States agreed under the treaty to limit not only their deployed warheads but also delivery systems, to such levels that do not find any historical counterpart since the start of Cold War. In 2018, the two countries successfully met the central limits under the treaty. They continue to do so. Unless extended, New START is set to expire in 2021. It limits the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 and deployed ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers to 700.
There is no reason for not extending the New START. An extension will serve the national interests of Russia and the United States. Experts in both countries have argued that such an extension is imperative
Speaking to mark the eighth anniversary of the treaty entering into force, President Trump dubbed New START, as well as other treaties and agreements, a “bad deal” that he said only favored Russia. The statement implied that White House was likely to be unwilling to allow a 5-year extention. President Trump has already withdrawn the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. He has also announced an impending withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
The way US is walking away from nuclear agreements has weakened the barrier to both horizontal vertical proliferation. The breakdown of nuclear treaties signed between the United States and Russia could indisputably open the way for a new arms race. A new arms race would not only destabilize their economies but also make the world more insecure.
Like many other treaties, New Start opens channels of communication and allows for transparency on both sides. The two countries maintain 92 per cent of the global nuclear stockpile. The limits set forth in the treaty allow the United States and Russia to maintain reliable deterrence required at strategic, operational and tactical levels.
President Trump’s distaste for international agreements that have brought peace and stability to the world is making the world less stable. If the two sides do not agree to extend New START, both the countries would revert to an unrelenting arms build-up and Cold War thinking. A miscalculation in the absence of a nuclear treaty can lead to a horrific catastrophe. The chief point of agreements like New START is to foster a sense of stability and collaboration between the two largest nuclear powers. The Cold War arms race did not result in a nuclear annihilation. However, this does not make it less dangerous.
New START should also be preserved because the INF Treaty is falling apart. New START is the last bilateral arms control treaty effectively constraining the US and Russian nuclear forces. There is no good reason not to extend New START. An extension will serve the national interests of Russia and the United States. A number of civilian experts as well as military leaders on both sides have argued that an extension is imperative.
The writer is an Islamabad based lawyer