The exit polls for the five-state assembly elections indicate disaster for the Bharatiya Janata Party. If their prediction proves correct, Rajasthan will be lost to the BJP, M.P. and Chattisgarh’s possibly lost too. In Telangana and Mizoram, it may draw a blank. Large scale communal riots are likely to ensue.
Lok Sabha elections are a war for the Delhi Sultanate, and Indian history shows that in such wars, rivers of blood flow, e.g. in the War of Succession after Shah Jahan’s illness. So, every dirty trick to win will be used by all parties. Congress was in power for half a century, BJP for only about 10 years. Naturally, it would not like to lose power, and will use every mean to retain it. And being in power in the centre and in many states gives it a distinct advantage, as it will definitely use the state machinery for its benefit.
The main problem for the BJP is this: Its secure vote bank is the upper caste Hindus, but these collectively are only about 20 percent in big states like UP and Bihar. To win elections one needs over 30 percent votes. So, getting the additional 10 percent is the main problem for BJP.
In the 2017 UP assembly elections, this problem was solved by winning over many non-Yadav OBCs, who had the grievance that Samajwadi Party benefits only the Yadavas, and not other OBCs. Hence, BJP gave a lot of tickets to non-Yadav OBCs, resulting in a landslide victory for BJP. But the non-Yadav OBCs are not a reliable BJP vote bank.
The only alternative left with BJP is whipping up communal frenzy on a massive scale in an effort to get hold of a section of the non-upper caste Hindu vote. It was this gambit, which raised the BJP seats in the Lok Sabha from 2 in 1984 to 182 in 1999.
Some people say that the Ram Janma Bhumi agitation has exhausted itself, and this ploy will not work anymore. I disagree. A move has been made to again whip up passions over the issue, and at any event there are other ways to stoke the communal fire. It must be remembered that secularism is a feature of industrial society, but India is still semi-feudal, as evident from the rampant casteism and communalism still prevalent. Our constitution no doubt says that India is a secular republic, but the ground reality is quite different.
The truth is that in India, most Hindus are communal, as are most Muslims. Communalism is always latent in our society, only requiring some catalyst to bring it to the surface.
It is not difficult to incite communal passions in India. For instance, a miscreant can slaughter some cows and throw their carcasses in Hindu temples overnight, writing on the temple walls “Allah-o-Akbar.” The next day communal riots will start.
So, one can predict quite accurately that large scale communal violence will start shortly in India, and of course, Muslims will be at the receiving end. Dark days are ahead for the country.