Kalabagh Dam is one of the most hated dams in the country. It is hated by those weaned on the staple diet of visceral anger pandering more to prejudice than logic. In a country where rumours and innuendoes fill the poisoned chalice of illogic of those on a well-funded mission to mislead others, the facts and reality stand no chance. Small wonder then the warnings of our “Water Cassandras” were spurned with a lemming like suicide alacrity. What else explains the self-immolating zeal of over 200 million zealots willing to condemn themselves and future generations to a condign fate of parched throats and desert fields? When a water abundant country in 1981, turns into a water scarce country in 2018, we have nobody but our warped sense of national priorities to blame. The nations that politicized dams or capitulated to political blackmail over dams have never broken the vicious circle of external dependency.
Xayaboury Dam in Laos over the contentious Mekong River is being made in the teeth of the regional and international opposition by Laos and Thailand. Vietnam and Cambodian opposition to the project could not dissuade the Laotian and Thai governments that have completed nearly 40 percent of the task. The Chinese, while constructing the “Three Gorges Dam”, faced monumental opposition but their leadership persevered despite the fact that the dam was not a life and death issue like our Kalabagh Dam, which is so vital to redress our rapidly approaching water scarcity. Mao Tse Tung wrote a famous poem ie “Swimming” to canvass support for the dam in 1956. Despite his pursuance the naysayers persisted in their opposition and had to be silenced through imprisonment in 1958 before starting the project. Today all Chinese sing paeans to the glory of the famous dam that besides having installed capacity of 22500 megawatts, has effectively alleviated the ferocity of downstream floods.
The above should serve as a rude awakening for those still wedded to the idea of the elusive national consensus. When the Chinese despite a totalitarian political orientation could not achieve consensus could we? I think the more important question is, should we? Now there are certain realities that need to be reconciled in our dam construction endeavour. First reality is that being a net energy importer Pakistan has a strong incentive for development of our renewable energy prospects. Hydel energy fits that bill ideally. An arid country where 80 percent of the rain water flow occurs in three months i.e June, July, and August definitely needs storage reservoirs to store and later use that water during water scarce months. Our second reality is the slow but sure choking of our river water flow by the Indians, who have encroached upon our water share through proactive establishment of their water usage rights over our Western rivers. Our third reality is that our people have been duped by politicians over water rights issue on spurious yet emotive grounds, stoking fears of a Punjab usurpation of small provinces’ water rights. Our fourth and the most worrisome reality is that there is zero chance of a national consensus on dams like Kalabagh due to decades old atmosphere vitiated by politicians and externally funded saboteurs.
The Chinese, while constructing the “Three Gorges Dam”, faced monumental opposition but their leadership persevered despite the fact that the dam was not a life and death issue like our Kalabagh Dam
Now what should one do when faced with the prospects of drowning while sitting in a boat where there is no consensus on how to remove water from the boat? Should one wait for the consensus while the boat sinks or try and repair the hole in the boat before building that consensus? The answer would obviously be immediate repair of the boat. Pakistan’s water shortage has reached alarming proportions while we equivocate and debate ad infinitum. If the sane counsel points towards a building of the dam what means should be employed to ride roughshod over the elusive consensus? The simple answer is that the means should be subordinated to the needs and the issue securitised to bring it within the pale of national security. The concept should be articulated through a politico-judicial consensus supported by the armed forces. Judiciary should rule for the construction of the dam, while the politicians provide funds and the armed forces provide security against the political backlash.
We need a strong federal government that plans and develops the water resources centrally while decentralizing municipal, local policing, local taxation, and urban cum rural development functions. Without waiting for that elusive national consensus the dam construction must begin purely on technical and environmental feasibility. Having securitised the issue as a national security issue the structures and processes supporting the projects should be strengthened and streamlined. Our best and brightest human resources should be co-opted in that endeavour through an incentive package offered through better remuneration and congenial working conditions.
National Water Policy that was framed post haste after a slew of warnings about impending desertification and food shortage needs to focus on all three angles of water resource development i.e water conservation, water storage, and water shed management by both India and Pakistan. WAPDA needs to build its policy planning and research capability besides shoring up its project management capability through infusion of competent and dedicated engineers from the market. As a lead agency for development of our water reservoirs and the electricity grid evacuation it should be allowed to build its capability untrammeled by bureaucratic strictures. Some of the powers that were taken away from WAPDA by the Ministry of Water and Power (Present Ministry of Water Resources) should be given back to it for effective and speedy project management.
Large dams change the destiny of nations. Hoover Dam gave Las Vegas to the US besides spurring the agricultural and industrial development of the US South West. Sardar Sarovar Dam on India’s Narmada River, despite a volley of criticism, has revolutionized agriculture downstream. China’s Three Gorges Dam is the world’s largest hydropower project that generates more than 95 terawatts of power. The dam has controlled the devastating floods that ravaged Yangtze catchment area every year. Pakistan has one of the lowest storage capacities in South Asia of 30 days whereas India has 120-220 days of storage capacity. Pakistan’s three major dams have power generation capacity of 6385 mw whereas Indian 74 major dams have over 15000 mw capacity. The glaring contrast is disheartening.
The way forward, points towards a national as well as regional cooperation for water resources’ development as South Asia faces a 50 percent water deficit as a region by the year 2030. Efficient water management and water conservation is the need of the hour. Surface as well as Ground Water conservation through strict monitoring and prevention of wastage is direly required, besides a trans boundary joint basin management between India and Pakistan. There is need for a more proactive water diplomacy and periodic review of water treaties as these become outdated due to developments on ground.
For far too long Pakistanis have been duped by the specious and self-serving arguments against the Kalabagh Dam. Sindh’s fears can be allayed by citing UN studies that prove that out of 36 maf water being lost to sea, 21 maf can be conveniently saved, leaving adequate water for preserving downstream ecosystem. The real reason is the River Indus catchment areas that get flooded, leaving fertile land for the big landlords of Sindh. These big landowners would never like to resolve the problems of floods that devastate Sindh every year for their petty gains. It is precisely for the same reason that the Kalabagh Dam is opposed. The story of Kalabagh opposition in KP is more lurid. An ex high ranking official, having served in WAPDA, in a fit of pique upon being superseded, tried to get even with General Ziaul Haq who was planning to build the dam then. The officer furnished false facts to politicians trying to oppose the government on any issue as the development coincided with the surveyors’ marking of an old flood’s levels in Nowshera on people’s houses.
Now the politicians who duped the people for 30 years on Kalabagh for selfish reasons cannot be expected to commit political hara-kiri by accepting their mistake. It is therefore futile to expect a national consensus on Kalabagh. The dam will have to be built without that consensus, and unless it is built, our slide on the waterless abyss is a foregone conclusion. Kalabagh Dam in view of our present water crisis therefore is both a metaphor for water resource development as well as a national security imperative.
The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST; [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, July 9th 2018.