In a recent manoeuvre, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani has offered peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. Most notable are the offers from President Ghani — which include no preconditions to the talks, recognising Taliban as a political group, allowing Taliban offices in Afghanistan, issuing passports to their families and consideration on the amendment in the constitution.
For the past 18 years, Afghanistan is under a deadly war. It resulted in millions of refugees and thousands of casualties.
The US-Afghan leadership has pressed Pakistan numerous times to escort Afghan Taliban on the negotiation table ex-post facto. It is because Pakistan’s establishment earlier had the leveraging on the Afghan Taliban top hierarchy. Twice Pakistan made it possible but the US leadership derailed it via drone strikes. The most recent being Mullah Akhtar Mansoor’s killing in a drone strike when the peace process was advancing.
Now the essential question is that why Ashraf Ghani has offered a peace process? It is believed that in the last month, the Afghan Taliban issued a letter to the US offering to hold the peace talks. Taliban also stated, “If the policy of using force is continued for another one hundred years, the outcome will be the same”. Therefore, Taliban intimated towards the peace. Moreover, Taliban categorically mentioned having talks with the US directly.
In reply to the offers of Ashraf Ghani, Taliban ruled out to have talks with the Afghan government. Instead, they rendered the US to initiate peace process because Taliban believe the US is the real power in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is also pinioned by the US leadership to bring Taliban to the table. But the fact is Pakistan does not have any leverage over Taliban anymore. Many of the experts believe that Russia, China and Iran have a firm grip over Taliban. Hence, they are the reasonable countries to bring Taliban for the peace process.
Furthermore, America is penalising Pakistan for supporting Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban. An expert on Quetta Shura presence in Pakistan told that their families have now moved to Iran.
Pakistan has categorically denied the presence of Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban on its territory. In this case, many US senators have also visited the war zones of Pakistan to verify the situation. They applauded the terrorist cleansing, but the policy remains alike: ‘to corner Pakistan’.
The existent problem lies with America, which is not explicit over the future of Afghanistan.In 2012, Taliban were allowed to open apolitical office in Qatar under a secret agreement between the US and Afghan Taliban. Moving forward, the situation remained hazy for years. And just after the entry of Trump’s administration, they categorically stated: ‘no talks with the terrorists’.
The underlying problem in Afghanistan is the US itself, as its policy towards the region is not clear. By enhancing the Indian role in Afghanistan, the US is only going to further complicate the situation
The US is making Afghanistan theme complicated. For example, offering India to deploy troops in Afghanistan despite tense Indo-Pak relations. Most significantly, Pakistan was the permanent strategic partner of the US in Afghanistan. In retroactive, when the Soviet Union intervened in Afghanistan, Pakistan weighed with the US, whereas India sided with the Soviet Union.
Far more important is the US curtailing Pakistan to uplift the influence of India in Afghan peace process. In this context, US recently passed a resolution to put Pakistan on the grey list of FATF (Financial Action Task Force) from June this year.
There are possibly three reasons why America doesn’t have a coherent stance on Afghanistan.
First is to diminish the influence of China through India. It includes the destabilisation of CPEC, which is under construction in Pakistan. Adding to it, Indian footprint in Balochistan province is lucid. Moreover, in this subject, Kulbhushan Jadhav is living evidence of state-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan. Far more significant is the nexus between RAW and Baloch insurgents.
Second is to remain a permanent stakeholder in the region. It will help the US to have a colossal piece of cake in the composition of the regional policy.
The third is to destabilise Iran. Amidst Islamic countries, Iran has only taken a head-on with the US. The incumbent situation in the Middle East is understandable. Iran is everywhere on the opposite side of the US, whereas other Islamic countries, ie Saudi Arabia, UAE stand beside the US.
It is true that Afghan Taliban control approximately 70 percent area of Afghanistan. According to Afghan experts, Haqqani Network exists in Paktia, Paktika and Logar provinces of Afghanistan.
Pakistan has faced a significant backlash of American intervention in Afghanistan, in terms of casualties, Afghan refugees and economy. Around eighty thousand civilian and armed officers have been killed in the war on terror. A government survey in 2016 stated a loss of $118.3 billion directly or indirectly due to the war on terror. Consequently, Afghan refugees are also burdened on Pakistan’s economy.
Ultimately, it is in the hands of Afghan leadership to choose their fate. Afghan affair will remain moot if it lacks regional approach.
The writer is an academic. He tweets @muhd_hani
Published in Daily Times, March 15th 2018.