A one-time ally of the United States, Pakistan is now slowly gravitating towards China. This is due, in part, to the latter’s $62 billion-investment to the country under the CPEC banner. This comprises important infrastructure projects such the development of commercial ports, industrial power plants and high-speed roads; all of which are likely to change the face of the national economy.
By contrast, this rather puts into perspective the US military assistance afforded to Islamabad during the last 15 years. And now the Trump administration has frozen most of this, including the $225 million that had been earmarked for military hardware. The fallout has been a veritable queering of the pitch in terms of securing an American exit strategy from neighbouring Afghanistan.
For simply put, Pakistan has a crucial role to play when it comes to the above; not least because Afghanistan is a landlocked country. Meaning that NATO supply lines pass through the Khyber Pass as well as Balochistan. Thus it is the US that needs Islamabad’s assistance as opposed to the other way round.
Against this backdrop, therefore, the infamous Trump tweet could well provoke serious repercussions. After all, if Pakistan does decide to strike back by refusing access to Afghanistan — Washington will have no option but consider requesting other nations to open up air corridors; an extremely expensive exercise.
Despite temporary setbacks, Pakistan should continue diplomatic efforts with a view to re-establishing relations with the US. After all, it would be wise to counter an ascending China with American supportm, so that no single actor is permitted either undue influence or is able to dictate wholly self-serving terms
While one may credit the American president for his business acumen, when it comes to demonstrating a sound understanding of geo-strategic reality, particularly in a South Asian context, he has been found rather wanting. In other words, Trump should realise that blocking all assistance to Pakistan simply paves the way for a rising China to step in to help its all weather friend. With the added bonus of expanding its sphere of influence in the region to Afghanistan.
After all, the Middle Kingdom already enjoys a relatively strong presence in both South and Central Asia; something that has been largely credited to Pakistan. Thus it was no surprise that Beijing, immediately following the Trump tweet, stood with Islamabad. Indeed, it stressed that the “world community should acknowledge Pakistan’s contribution to counter-terrorism”. The US would do well to take heed of this warning given that it no longer enjoys the same leverage that it once did. That is something that Islamabad is slowly reserving for China in exchange for the latter’s economic and political support.
Over the summer we saw the US withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). And just last month we saw Washington, at the WTO, refuse support the developing world when it comes to extending farm subsidies and food stockholding; though the latter is itself against house rules. Thus American influence in both South East and South Asia is in decline. In fact, the US may be said to be solely responsible for China’s regional ascendency.
Another great irony is that the country that once had supported the Haqqani Network to get the Soviets out of Afghanistan is now taking up arms against the very same. Whereas China, for its part, is far more inclined towards pragmatism. Meaning that it understands the need to engage with both the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban given that these groups, between them, control around 40-45 percent of the country. Equally important is that Beijing is mindful of the reasons for Pakistan’s reluctance in going after these outfits: namely, a backlash from its own sizeable Pashtun population and the genuine security concerns that this would bring with it.
And China is putting its money where its mouth is. In a well coordinated effort, it recently managed to broker a peace of sorts between Islamabad and Kabul. The first trilateral meeting offered hope of finding a lasting solution to the end of the longest war in American history. Not only that, Beijing also enlisted Pakistan’s support to try and bring the Haqqani Network and the Taliban to the negotiating table.
Thus if the US hopes to counter a rising China it needs to put revisit ways of engagement with Pakistan to find a lasting political settlement to bring the war in Afghanistan to an end. And that means giving up the rhetoric of belligerence including threats of suspending military assistance and reimbursements.
Nevertheless, a word of caution for Pakistan: despite the temporary set-backs it should continue diplomatic efforts towards re-establishing relations with the US. For it is never wise to become entirely reliant upon one nation. And it would be wise to counter an ascending China with American support; so that no single actor is permitted either undue influence or is able to dictate terms that are wholly self-serving in nature.
The author is an independent columnist and political commentator
Published in Daily Times, January 12th 2018.