A new war of words erupted between India and Pakistan this week, as news broke out that Commander Kulbushan Jhadav, an Indian spy caught and trialed in Pakistan had been awarded the death sentence. The resulting cacophony of political statements and public sentiment from both sides is deafening and disconcerting. Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj said India would go out of its way to save him from death penalty. Whereas, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that rule of law had been followed and Jhadav had been convicted accordingly.
Given the fact that Jhadav was trialed through Field General Court Martial (FGCM) under the Pakistan Army Act 1952, he still has the right to appeal as well as clemency to the army chief and the president. In other words, he won’t be executed anytime soon. This is also keeping in mind the fact that there has been only one Indian hanged in Pakistan prior to this case, and that was Sheikh Shamim in 1999.
The bigger problem is that in an environment of political vitriol, this incident will only fan flames of acrimony. With international powers reiterating their concern over Pakistan-India relations and peace in the region at large, the conviction of Jhadav is a major monkey wrench in the bureaucratic and political machinery that is already creaking from decades of mutual mistrust and rancour. However, in all this confusion and noise, a few important facts must be established and accepted.
First, a serving officer of the Indian Navy was caught operating in Pakistan. His confession was scoffed at by many for it may have been strongly coerced, but given India’s reaction to the verdict, Jhadav is officially the face of Indian interventionism and clandestine operations on Pakistani soil. For years, Pakistan has been handing secret dossiers about Indian involvement in Balochistan, as well as the encirclement of Pakistan through the Afghan-Indian nexus, but this is the first time something concrete has emerged in public with such incontrovertible proof. In contrast, the Indian government said in 2016 that 46 Pakistani ‘spies’ had been arrested between 2013 and 2016. However, none of them have seen the light of day.
Second, this will be touted as a major victory for the military courts in Pakistan. They were established considering the sluggish and incompetent criminal justice system in the country, and their salient features list was headed speedy trials and verdicts. On that front, the courts have delivered. Rights groups will inevitably raise concerns over due process, but the fact of the matter is that Jhadav has been convicted under rule of law, as the military courts are a mandated, legislated part of the justice system in Pakistan.
Third, this will severely dampen and hamper reconciliation efforts between the two countries. If Jhadav is hanged, the pending talks between the two arch rivals will only be derailed, further exacerbating the situation and rendering the region politically nebulous.
In addition to the exchange of harsh words between the two sides, India also halted the repatriation of a dozen Pakistani prisoners. Pakistan will likely do the same in the coming days, as diplomatic ties are all-time low.
Pakistan has an interesting conundrum to address.
If Jhadav is hanged, the relations with India take a sharp nosedive with little chance of short-term recovery. The fact that he was found on Pakistani soil, working against Pakistani interests will be summarily and emphatically drowned by the hegemonic Indian media machine, both domestically in India and internationally. In essence, a potential victory for Pakistan will be turned into Pakistan’s fault for aggravating the precarious situation.
However, if he is given clemency, Pakistan can use his continued existence to build a narrative for Indian interventionism in the country. This is an element that has been discussed extensively by media pundits, diplomats and civil-military leaders, but has never been proven categorically in the public sphere. Jhadav, by virtue of his complicity and criminal conviction, can be the long-awaited rallying cry Pakistan needs to turn the world’s attention towards India’s involvement in destabilising Pakistan.
The writer serves as a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected] and tweets @zeesalahuddin