The Supreme Court of Pakistan judges are letting the grass grow under their feet and are just gritting their teeth as the nation awaits the Panama Leaks case verdict with bated breath. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif seems to have lost his voice, as if he has seen a ghost. The Sharif pavilion, however, never ceases to lead the nation up the garden path: by presenting China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a game changer for the beggarly state. The question that deserves to go through an examination is: Can CPEC alone be a fate changer for Pakistan? I believe it cannot be so. Despite all the wonderful ingredients in the CPEC narrative, the project comes with heavy loans that will squeeze Pakistan’s already ugly debt profile. At a time when Pakistan’s external account is in tatters and inflation is threatening to rebound, having additional debt on the books is definitely not the right recipe for the fledgling economy. The macroeconomic health of the state remains questionable. Still, CPEC may result in long term economic benefits, given Pakistan subscribes to meaningful education reforms. Having that entire infrastructure will be good for nothing if half of the state’s labour force remains unskilled.
Let us now examine what game changers really are, and how good policy makers round the planet have altered the course of their nation’s history. Formal education has traditionally played a vital role towards promotion of rapid industrialisation and economic growth. Britain’s much talked about industrial revolution would not have scaled such heights without widespread access to quality education. By the 1880s, growth rates in Germany competed with those in Britain, making the grade, simply on the strength of a vibrant education system. The system of higher education in most of Europe and North America close to the turn of the 19th century acted as a nursery, producing skill sets that were in great demand. Sadly, without the privilege of quality education, middle income economies cannot graduate into the front batch. Attracting too many Chinese investments to sprout a spate of infrastructure schemes can be a golden opportunity only if young brains are spared a dog’s life.
Pakistan’s education statistics are anything but pleasing. The country still bears one of the highest illiteracy rates (60 percent) in the world. More than five million of its children under the age of 14 are out of school. Worse still, gender discrimination is quite telling as only around 20 percent of the state’s women have received 10 or more years of schooling. Primary school enrollment for females is discouraging. The quality of state education is lamentable. Lack of commitment of successive governments over the years has yielded a virtually rotten system of state education. A few teething concerns include: teacher absenteeism, outdated curriculum with little relevance to present day commercial needs, and a declining infrastructure. Private educational institutions have taken the lead but are too heavy on the common man’s purse. This has created an obvious divide as public sector education providers still account for over 60 percent of the country’s student population.
Cutting my cackle short, if we do not rescue a declining education system, then there is no way we can stop the country from going down the pan. Attracting Chinese money is indeed a good move, but are we well-equipped to maximise long term benefits that may result from such an enterprise? Do we have a labour force that can translate this investment binge into sustainable long term economic progress? Do we have leaders wise enough to think and plan? Our past has been a tragedy, but is our future going to be any different? These questions rankle my brain and I will be happy to eat my words if I am missing the plot here.
The writer is an alumnus of the University of Cambridge and an economist. He previously worked as a journalist in London and has also played for Pakistan’s junior cricket team