Smoke was still rising from Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday when the diplomats trying to end the Iran war began another round of calls.
Just one news cycle earlier, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had declared in a social media post (shared by US President Donald Trump), “We are closer to a peace deal than ever before.” POTUS also claimed that a deal between the US and Iran will be signed on Sunday, coinciding with his birthday. “Immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” he emphasised. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators had flown to Tehran for what officials described as a final push.
Yet the battlefield, as so often in this war, moved faster than the communiqués. Israel struck Dahiyeh, Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut.
That is the state of the Iran endgame on Day 107: a memorandum close enough to be named after Islamabad, but still hostage to Lebanon, Hormuz, Tehran’s hardliners and Trump’s own deadline diplomacy.
According to Pakistani officials, the electronic signing was to be followed by technical-level talks next week–a fact acknowledged by India analyst Ashok Swain on X: “The US-Iran deal will not be signed in Islamabad but will be called as ‘Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding’ – It cements Pakistan’s credibility as the mediator!”
Tehran remains far more guarded. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state media the memorandum would not be signed on Sunday. “The possibility of this happening in the coming days cannot be ruled out,” he said, but added that caution was necessary because of what he called hesitation on the other side. Fars news agency later reported that Iran had not taken a final decision and was still reviewing the political, legal and technical aspects of the framework.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and one of the central voices in the process, put the problem more sharply after the Beirut strike. “Israel’s incursion into Dahiyeh once again demonstrated that America either lacks the will to fulfil its commitments or the ability to do so,” he wrote. “By giving the green light to the regime, you cannot gain concessions. The game of bad cop and good cop is outdated.”
Trump appeared to understand the danger. In a Truth Social post, he said the Beirut attack “should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal with Iran.” He added that there should be “no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon” and no attacks by Hezbollah or any other party against Israel. “This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace,” he wrote. “Let’s not blow it.”
The draft memorandum, as described by officials familiar with the talks, is not a peace treaty. It is, at best, an emergency mechanism. Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a narrow choke-point carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil – and Washington would end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. In exchange, the US would begin releasing frozen Iranian assets, now put by officials at about $25bn, and waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The nuclear file, which Trump cited as the reason for launching strikes in February, would be moved into a 60-day negotiating track.
The sequencing remains the central dispute. A senior US official says the arrangement is performance-based: Iran opens Hormuz first, relief follows, and nuclear talks begin afterwards. Tehran wants relief to accompany the ceasefire, not arrive as a reward after compliance.
Iran has agreed, according to officials briefed on the draft, not to produce or acquire a nuclear weapon and to avoid expanding enrichment while talks continue. It has not agreed to dismantle its nuclear programme. It also wants to dilute enriched uranium inside Iran rather than have the material removed.
Hormuz is the second unresolved file. Washington wants the strait open without tolls, harassment or coercive Iranian controls. Tehran wants to preserve a regional management role, reportedly with Oman, and Iranian media have suggested fees for services in the waterway.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the US blockade would begin to end once an accord is signed, but has also made clear Washington will keep enough force in the region to ensure that the military option remains available during the nuclear talks.
Pakistan argues that the Islamabad Pact gives both sides a face-saving off-ramp: Trump can claim his pressure forced Iran to reopen Hormuz, while Tehran can tell its people that sanctions relief is coming without immediately dismantling its nuclear programme.
Iranian caution demonstrates that hardliners in Tehran – notably the Revolutionary Guards – remain sceptical. A June 12 report by the Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project noted that Iranian media portrays the emerging memorandum “as a tactical pause in the war rather than a final settlement” and that Iran is trying to frontload US concessions to reduce American leverage before nuclear negotiations.
Thinktanks in Washington sound sceptical, warning against premature triumphalism. Even if a preliminary understanding emerges, it is more likely to be a broad outline, in sync with the ground realities already shaping the world order.
The Atlantic Council’s Jonathan Panikoff cautioned: “What’s being discussed now isn’t a deal. It’s an MOU – a rough outline of concepts.”
Retired US Central Command deputy commander Vice Adm Robert Harward told Fox News that Iran’s “economic strangulation” – caused by the naval blockade – has forced Tehran to the table, and any deal must include dismantling the nuclear programme and ending support for armed proxies.
Small Wars Journal has been blunter, describing such a memorandum as “not a settlement but a deferral” without verification, enforcement and a clear theory of victory.
A four-month war that has killed thousands and pushed global energy prices to record highs may be nearing its first serious exit ramp. But the first test will not be the signature.
The document must still reopen Hormuz, set up inspection regimes, sequence sanctions relief and address billions of dollars in frozen assets. Nuclear negotiations will be contentious, and Israel, Hezbollah and the Houthis retain the capacity to blow up any ceasefire. The Institute for the Study of War warns that Iranian forces continue to use coercion in the Strait and will likely try to reimpose restrictions whenever convenient.
Pakistan’s moment in the sun is real. If the Islamabad Pact is signed and holds, it will mark the first time Islamabad has brokered a major peace framework in the Gulf. But a single piece of paper cannot stop missiles by itself. A deal may be close, but the war is not over.