The Middle East is once again passing through an extremely sensitive and delicate phase in its history. The recent attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel have not only deepened the atmosphere of war in the region but have also brought global politics to the brink of a new crisis. The situation became even more serious when reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, had been martyred during these attacks. This event could have profound effects on Iran’s internal politics as well as on the future of the entire region, and it already has, as more than twenty people have reportedly been killed during protests in Pakistan following his death.
According to Iranian state sources, Ayatollah Khamenei was martyred in a joint American-Israeli airstrike. The news has generated strong reactions not only in Iran but throughout the Muslim world. Millions of people have taken to the streets in Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei served as Iran’s Supreme Leader for more than three decades and played a central role in shaping the country’s domestic and foreign policies. Under his leadership, Iran expanded its influence in the region and adopted a strong political and military stance against the United States and Israel. For this reason, his death is being viewed not merely as the loss of an individual but as a major shift in the power dynamics of regional politics. However, there is another aspect of this incident that cannot be ignored. The United States and Israel have justified the attack on Iran by citing its nuclear program. They argue that Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose a threat to regional peace. Yet there appears to be a major contradiction in this narrative. In June of last year, the United States and Israel also carried out operations against Iran and claimed that they had inflicted severe damage on Iran’s nuclear program and had almost eliminated its capabilities. If that had indeed happened, then why was there a need to launch another attack today on the same grounds? This question is circulating not only among the people of the region but also within the international community. Such contradictions in international politics often create a crisis of trust. If major powers talk about peace and stability on one hand while attempting to resolve issues through military action on the other, the credibility of the global system is undermined.
Military power may achieve temporary success, but it cannot establish lasting peace.
Meanwhile, following the martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei, an interim leadership has been established within Iran, and preparations are underway for the selection of a new Supreme Leader through constitutional procedures. Iranian media sources claim that his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been selected as the new Supreme Leader. On the other hand, Iran has described the attacks as a declaration of war and has begun retaliatory strikes against various American and Israeli targets, including U.S. military bases in different countries of the region. Arab countries have warned Iran not to drag them into this war. If the tension escalates further, it could transform from a limited confrontation into a broader regional war. The Middle East is already the centre of numerous conflicts.
The Palestinian issue, the Syrian civil war, the crisis in Yemen, and the unstable situation in Iraq have kept the region in a constant state of tension. If direct war breaks out between Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, its effects could engulf the entire region.
Iran’s regional policy must also be understood in this context. Iran has allied groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, commonly referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” If the war between Iran and Israel intensifies, these elements could also become involved in the conflict, further increasing the likelihood of a large-scale regional war.
The consequences of such a war would not only be political or military; the global economy could also be severely affected, and indeed it already is. Iran has announced that it will target all kinds of traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which has already caused oil prices to rise in many parts of the world. The Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are vital routes for global energy supplies. If war continues in this region, the transportation of oil and gas could be disrupted, leading to a rapid increase in energy prices in global markets.
It is also important to recognise the fact that wars are never a permanent solution to problems. History bears witness to this reality. Military power may achieve temporary success, but it cannot establish lasting peace. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are clear examples. The United States conducted military operations in Afghanistan for nearly twenty years in the name of the war against terrorism, yet eventually it had to withdraw through negotiations. Similarly, the invasion of Iraq was justified on the grounds of weapons of mass destruction, but this claim later proved to be unfounded. Iran must also demonstrate great wisdom in this situation. Although every country has the right to defend its sovereignty and security, any emotional reaction could plunge the entire region into the flames of war. Iran should not completely close the door to diplomacy and negotiations.
Likewise, the United States and Israel must understand that the use of force cannot establish lasting peace in the region. If their concern truly revolves around Iran’s nuclear program, then the solution lies not in military action but in diplomatic negotiations and international agreements.
The international community, especially the United Nations, should play an active role in this situation. The UN Secretary-General has also expressed concern over the escalating tensions and has called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations in order to prevent a major war. Countries of the Muslim world, including Pakistan, should closely monitor this situation. The Muslim world is already facing various political and economic challenges. If another major war erupts in the Middle East, it will also affect the politics, economy, and security of Muslim countries.
At this moment, the world needs not more wars but peace, stability, and cooperation. If global powers continue to view the use of force as the solution to problems, the consequences could be far more devastating than before. Wisdom demands that all parties abandon the path of war and instead adopt dialogue, diplomacy, and mutual understanding, because history teaches us that wars bring destruction, while peace guarantees progress and stability.
The writer is an old Aitchisonian who believes in freedom of expression, a freelance columnist, entrepreneur and social activist.