Pakistan’s solar energy boom is reshaping the national power system as cheap panels and rising grid tariffs push households toward solar. As more users shift to net-metered and behind-the-meter systems, daytime demand keeps falling. However, the current tariff design cannot reflect real market conditions, and the benefit of lower marginal costs still does not reach consumers.
Solar additions now exceed 25 gigawatts, and the load curve has changed sharply. Daytime demand drops as solar energy floods the system, but the grid still pays high capacity charges. Batteries and decentralised generation reduce sales further, and this creates a deeper “duck curve,” which shows low demand at midday and steep evening demand spikes. As a result, the grid struggles to recover fixed costs from fewer units sold.
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Experts warn that battery storage may reach 75 gigawatt-hours by 2028, which could push more people away from the grid. They argue that Pakistan must move from outdated cost-plus tariffs to a modern subscription model. Under this model, customers would pay separately for capacity, network, and energy, allowing prices to track real-time supply and demand. This shift could also encourage industries to shift energy-heavy work to daytime hours.
Pakistan currently pays nearly Rs3.5 trillion in annual power payments, with capacity costs making up more than half. Dividing these costs across falling grid sales creates severe financial stress. Analysts say the existing pricing method hides real costs and forces consumers to pay more as grid usage shrinks. A transparent tariff structure could protect both consumers and the system.
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Pakistan’s solar energy growth is not slowing down, and the duck curve will deepen without reforms. Experts say the country must redesign tariffs to survive a future where solar panels and batteries sit on every street. They argue that only a modern tariff structure can stabilise the system and help Pakistan benefit from expanding solar energy instead of being overwhelmed by it.