Since assuming leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) has been extremely serious and concerned about the security of the KSA. He is determined to protect the citizens of KSA and its sovereignty at any cost. He has taken numerous steps, but the rapprochement with Iran and achieving defence diversification and self-sufficiency under Vision 2030 stand out among all his initiatives. Vision 2030 has identified the defence sector as one of its primary goals, aiming to reduce its reliance on imported defence products amid an uncertain global environment.
When MBS became Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia was meeting 98% of its defence needs through imports, not a good sign for a sovereign nation. Therefore, MBS decided that Saudi Arabia would increase its domestic production and meet 50% of its defence needs locally by 2030.
Pakistan and the KSA should seek partners who can complement and support both nations in their efforts to achieve peace in the region and beyond.
Second, he welcomed China’s initiative to promote peace and support development in the Middle East. Thanks to Chinese efforts, KSA and Iran have begun to repair their relationship, which benefits the region. It is also positive news for the Muslim Ummah.
However, in recent years, the Middle East has been experiencing fascism from Israel. First, Israel has caused the worst humanitarian crisis in Palestine and is committing genocide. It is also on a spree of attacking countries one after another. This is against all international laws and ethics, but Israel is doing it with impunity. The UN and the West, the so-called guardians of international law, have failed to stop Israel. This attitude encouraged Israel, and in recent months, it first engaged in war with Iran, and now it has attacked Qatar. The attack on Qatar shook the global system and is threatening the peace and security of the region. Israeli behaviour is threatening the sovereignty of all regional countries, and the KSA is no exception.
In this context, the Crown Prince’s initiative to sign a Mutual Defence Pact (MDP) with Pakistan is a visionary move. Pakistan and KSA will work together to secure peace in the region and beyond. The most important clause of the MDP is that “an attack on one country will be considered an attack on both.” This clause results from decades of deep, goal-oriented, and trustworthy defence relationships. Pakistan, even before signing this pact, has demonstrated its will and has the capabilities to protect the Holy Mosques and land.
The agreement has two dimensions, security and economic. On the security front, it will act as a deterrent in South Asia and the Middle East. It will curtail the expanding fascism of India and Israel in South Asia and the Middle East, respectively. Israel will have to think 100 times before envisioning any attack on Saudi Arabia. In the case of an attack, it will face not only Saudi forces but also the Pakistani forces. The capabilities and skills of Pakistani troops are well-recognised throughout the world, and one example is down seven (7) fighter jets and destroying the S400 defence system of India. Moreover, Israeli forces are not used to fighting with organised and skilled forces, and Pakistani forces are entirely a different breed.
In the case of South Asia, will India dare to attack Pakistan in the presence of this Pact? It is expected that after the humiliating defeat of May 2025, India will dare to attack Pakistan. However, let’s assume India decides to attack Pakistan or engages in any misadventure, then India will have to face Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. The attack will introduce the economic dimensions to this war. Saudi Arabia has invested billions in India across various fields, including energy, infrastructure, and agriculture. Moreover, millions of Indians live and work there, which lowers the burden on the job market in India and helps to contain unemployment. They also send back remittances of billions of dollars every year. In this context, can India afford to be an enemy of Saudi Arabia by attacking Pakistan when it has substantial economic interests with Saudi Arabia?
On the economic front, the USA can face worse consequences if the pact is executed in the true spirit. Why? Because if the USA’s guarantees are not trusted, then their weapons cannot be trusted. It is a well-known fact that the USA and Western countries do not disclose the source codes of their fighter jets and allow the use of their weapons against Israel. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia will need to seek new sources of weapons, including fighter jets. Thus, it can impact defence companies and the US market, as well as those of other Western countries.
In this context, Pakistan and the KSA should seek partners who can complement and support both nations in their efforts to achieve peace in the region and beyond. A partner who isn’t influenced by Western countries and can withstand their pressure. Additionally, it has the capacity, capability, and willingness to be a partner in this peace effort.
In this context, China would be an ideal candidate because it is free from Western or US influence. China creates its own policies and takes independent actions. It does not follow any country’s lead and bases its decisions on facts and fairness. A notable historical example is the cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia after the Iraq incident. At that critical moment, all Western allies of the KSA refused to provide long-range weapons. China stepped forward and supplied the necessary weapons to the KSA. It is worth noting that at that time, China and the KSA did not have formal diplomatic relations. Second, China openly supports the Palestinian cause and the Palestinians’ right to determine their future. China advocates for a two-state solution and condemns Israeli atrocities.
Third, a crucial point is that China can independently produce all types of weapons. The recent victory parade supports this claim. China has displayed the most advanced and modern weaponry, surpassing the West and the USA in many technologies, including hypersonic missiles. China is also developing 6th-generation fighter jets, while other countries continue to rely on 5th-generation models. It is leading in electronic and laser warfare. Additionally, China has developed its own navigation system, enabling it to bypass Western navigation systems.
Now, the question is whether China will be willing to build a partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Historical analysis suggests that yes, China will be willing. China has a strong relationship with both countries, especially with Pakistan. China is also strengthening its ties with the KSA, as President Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to enhancing collaboration with Saudi Arabia during his last visit to the country. Additionally, there is a clear business rationale: the partnership will create a new market for China’s defence industry.
In conclusion, it will be interesting to see how the pact unfolds. Its successful implementation could ensure peace in the Middle East and South Asia. However, we also need to consider the world’s response, especially from India, Israel, and the USA. Pakistan will share and gain from the USA’s influence, challenge Israel’s interests and ambitions, and India views Pakistan as an enemy.
Therefore, we must wait to see what this agreement brings for Pakistan and KSA. However, one thing is sure: both nations will stand firmly by each other, especially Pakistan, which will be willing to pay any price to protect the Holy Mosques and land.
The writer is COO Zalmi Foundation