Oil decided the last century; minerals for batteries and grids are deciding this one. In 2025 that is no longer a distant thesis-it is policy. Washington, Brussels and Beijing are writing trade, security and finance around metals like copper, lithium, nickel, graphite and rare earths. The question that matters for Pakistan is no longer whether the world is pivoting from oil to minerals. It already has.
The question is whether Pakistan shows up early enough-and credibly enough-to capture value beyond exporting raw rock. The geopolitics just shifted in Pakistan’s favor. On August 13-14, the U.S. State Department publicly said it looks forward to exploring cooperation with Pakistan on critical minerals and hydrocarbons, signaling that Pakistan is now on the radar of the Minerals Security agenda the West is building to reduce single-country dependencies in refining and processing. For Islamabad, that line matters because it moves minerals from talking-point to trackable workstream with a G7 capital.
The International Energy Agency’s 2025 critical minerals outlook shows lithium demand up 30 percent in 2024 and steady growth across nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths
For investors, it lowers political risk premia if it turns into deals, offtakes or co-financing. On the ground, the anchor is copper. Reko Diq-one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits-advanced materially this summer: Fluor received final notice to proceed on July 28, and the Asian Development Bank approved a financing package on August 22. Those are bankable milestones. Copper is not just another metal; it is the conductor of electrification-wiring EVs, grids and renewables. Every month Reko Diq moves forward, Pakistan’s minerals story looks less like aspiration and more like timeline. But the market backdrop is more sober than the hype. Lithium is no longer moon shotting.
After the 2022 spike above $70,000 per ton, 2025 has seen battery grade carbonate around $8,000-11,000 per ton, with a late summer bounce as supply trimmed and inventories normalized. Translation: the capital is still there, but it is more selective; projects must clear higher diligence on costs, ESG and security. This actually helps countries that can de risk with policy, contracts and credible partners. Demand is not the problem; supply concentration is.
The International Energy Agency’s 2025 critical minerals outlook shows lithium demand up 30 percent in 2024 and steady growth across nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths-yet refining remains concentrated, especially in China. The policy response in the West is diversification: more offtakes, more export credit support, more MSP style consortia. For Pakistan, that opens a lane: pair big ticket copper with a pipeline of rare earth and battery mineral prospects, then let geopolitics do some of the heavy lifting on financing. This is where statecraft meets spreadsheets.
The U.S. signal in mid August was preceded by quiet diplomacy around the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum in April, where a senior U.S. official engaged publicly in Islamabad. If Islamabad wants this to stick, it must convert “explore cooperation” into a short list: first, an offtake plus processing memorandum that keeps some value addition in Pakistan; second, a joint feasibility window for rare earth prospects in safer districts; third, export credit or development finance that prices below high yield and anchors private capital. The goal is simple: lock in at least one U.S. or allied transaction in 2025-26 so Pakistan is not a single buyer story. None of this requires boosterism about every mineral under the sun.
Keep the pitch to three lanes. First, copper via Reko Diq as the flagship-bankable, phased, with Tier 1 partners already on site. Second, rare earths-with discipline. Pakistan does have signals of REE potential in the north and in parts of Balochistan, but this is where international joint venture partners and transparent tendering matter most, because rare earths are as much about processing chemistry and environmental controls as about ore. Third, lithium adjacent opportunities: not chasing volatile spot prices but targeting upstream chemicals and recycling pilots where cost curves are falling. If Pakistan offers land, power and predictable contracts, the “China plus one” thesis can bring one processor across the line. The finance angle must be pragmatic. ESG capital is choosier in 2025; the cheap money era is over. That means project finance that blends multilateral money, export credits and private debt to bring the cost of capital down to something competitive with Latin America and Australia. The playbook is familiar: settle legacy disputes; stabilize fiscal terms for 20 years or more; hard wire community royalties and environmental covenants; publish contracts. Use Reko Diq’s ADB approval to set a model term sheet and replicate it down the pipeline. Security is the other hinge. Investors read risk through premiums, not press releases. If mining corridors in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa get predictable, civilian accountable security frameworks-with grievance redress, local hiring quotas and revenue sharing that shows up in district budgets-the spreadsheet changes. That is cheaper than paying a decade of risk premia. It also answers the only question that truly matters to communities: who benefits here, and when Globally, Pakistan should market optionality.
The West needs diversified copper and non Chinese REE processing; China needs reliable feedstock and long term stability; Gulf funds want inflation hedged, real asset exposure. Position Pakistan as a portfolio-one anchor copper project with clear milestones, one REE joint venture with a serious processor, one mid stream plant in a special zone with stable power. Then measure success brutally: dollars committed, capex spent, tonnes produced, royalties paid. The macro prize is not slogans about “trillions in the ground.”
It is foreign exchange and fiscal relief that shows up in 2028-30 when Reko Diq ramps, plus a second wave of mineral exports that lowers the structural current account gap. In parallel, value addition at home-refining steps, component manufacturing, services-creates jobs that do not vanish when commodity cycles turn. This year gave Pakistan an opening few expected: floods made the cost of delay obvious, while geopolitics made minerals strategic. The U.S. public signal in August, ADB’s financing approval, and concrete EPC mobilization at Reko Diq are three green lights on one dashboard. Use them. Cut the cycle of announcements without closures. Close one allied offtake, one REE joint venture, one mid stream plant. In a minerals century, early mover beats late convert. For Pakistan, the window is narrow but real, and indecision will cost more than just capital-it may cost its place on the new resource map.
The writer is a financial expert and can be reached at jawadsaleem. 1982@ gmail.com. He tweets @JawadSaleem1982