Islamabad, 22 July 2025: NDMA’s National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC) has issued multiple impact-based weather alerts in view of intensifying monsoon conditions across the country. Moist monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea are currently penetrating Sindh and upper parts of Pakistan and are likely to strengthen over upper and central regions till 25th July 2025. In addition, a fresh westerly wave is expected to enter the upper parts of the country on 21st July, further enhancing the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides in vulnerable areas.
As a result of these meteorological developments, increased water flows are expected in all major rivers, particularly Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, and Kabul. River Chenab at Marala, Khanki, and Qadirabad may reach low to medium flood levels, while River Jhelum upstream of Mangla and River Kabul at Nowshera are likely to rise to low flood levels. Inflows in Tarbela, Kalabagh, Chashma, Taunsa, and Guddu Barrages are currently at low flood stage and may increase to medium levels. Rivers Swat and Panjkora in KP, along with their associated nullahs, may swell due to persistent rainfall in their catchments, causing medium to high flows. In Gilgit Baltistan, River Hunza and Shigar are expected to experience increased discharge, with a high likelihood of localized flash flooding in their tributaries, including Hispar, Khunjerab, Shimshal, Braldu, Hushe, and Saltoro Rivers. Similarly, in Balochistan, stream networks in districts Musakhel, Sherani, Zhob, and Sibi are likely to experience significant flow increases. Currently, Tarbela Dam is at 80% and Mangla Dam at 51% storage capacity, with further rise expected due to incoming flows.
Under the combined influence of heavy monsoon rains, ongoing glacier and snowmelt, the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) has significantly increased in the northern valleys of Gilgit Baltistan and KP. Vulnerable areas include Reshun, Brep, Booni, Sardar Gol, Thalu 1 and 2, Hinarchi, Hundur, Darkut, Badswat, Ishkomen, and Arkari. These regions may experience sudden flash flooding, loss of lives and livelihoods, damage to infrastructure including roads and bridges, and disruption of access to remote mountain communities. There is also heightened risk of landslides.
NDMA is closely monitoring the evolving situation and remains in constant coordination with provincial authorities and emergency services. Travelers are strongly advised to avoid going towards mountainous and high-altitude areas during this period. Karakoram Highway and Babusar Top are completely blocked from both sides due to adverse weather and landslides. Those already in the area are advised to regularly check road conditions through local radio or official social media channels, citizens are urged to stay updated through official flood alerts via TV, radio, and the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile app. In case of road closures, do not use unverified alternative routes, as they may be extremely dangerous and unstable during monsoon spells.
NEOC issues impact-based weather and GLOF alerts amid intensifying monsoon activity
Published on: July 23, 2025 4:37 PM