I had titled one of my earlier articles in February as ‘The unorthodox Donald Trump’ highlighting his unorthodox re-orientation of the US relations with many countries and giving sleepless nights to many leaders. I had also visualized that Pakistan’s relations with USA would be re-oriented if ever when the cooperation of the former was needed in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan and the hostility between the three nuclear countries of China, Pakistan and India in the South Asia.
The Middle Eastern turmoil has deepened endangering peace and security in the entire region owing to the Zionist State’s unprovoked strikes on the Iranian nuclear installations and military assets with the [private] approval of President Donald Trump. Their plan was to decapitate Iran’s nuclear program destroying and killing their nuclear scientists and senior military officials in a swift wave of strikes and then announce unilateral ceasefire. This was a gross miscalculation. Iran retaliated with full force increasing the frustration of the Zionist leaders and President Donald Trump. It was beyond their wild imagination that Iran would be a hard nut to crack in the face of their pounding hammers.
The IWT is the jugular vein of Pakistan.
President Donald Trump’s approach to the war has been more unconventional. He has been more jingoistic than Netanyahu, issuing threats to the Iranian leaders, making audacious demands for surrender and acceptance of a shame deal under duress to save themselves and their country from annihilation given the US military power and the lethality of its weapons. Neither the US nor its allies in the European continent could see the unprovoked aggression of Israel against Iran attacking even the nuclear sites under the supervision of the IAEC. These duplicitous policies of the US-led West are undermining the global rule-based order.
President Donald Trump’s unpredictability and unconventional way of dealing with significant political, strategic and trade issues surprised many world leaders, and struck the Indian leaders like a naked sword when he invited the Chief of the Army Staff of Pakistan, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir for a face-to-face luncheon meeting in the White House on 19 June ignoring all the diplomatic and protocol norms and practices universally followed in the world. He said, he had invited FM to the White House to personally thank him for honoring his request to stop the war with India. He had also invited Narendra Modi for a stopover in Washington DC after his return from the G-7 Summit. The Indian leader had declined to do so for obvious reasons.
The meeting was unprecedented in the diplomatic annals of both White House and Islamabad. No US President has ever directly invited a serving Chief of Army Staff for lunch or for direct talks without the presence of any senior civilian leader. In the past, Pakistani Generals including Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Zia ul Haq, Pervaiz Musharraf had met the US Presidents – but only after assuming as leaders of military regimes in the country. For the first time, a serving Chief of Army Staff was accorded this privilege and honour at a time when there is a raging war between Israel and Iran, and the reverberations of the brief war between Pakistan and India are still felt in our region. India is adamant to keep the Indus Water Treaty suspended and threatens to divert the river waters of Pakistan. This could plunge this nuclearized region into another dangerous war.
While the military and civilian leaders of Pakistan acknowledge the role of President Donald Trump to stop the war – widely expected to spiral out of control – by arranging a ceasefire. They have developed a consensus to recommend him for the Nobel peace prize. However, the Indian leaders are not willing to extend this credit to the US leader. They insist that the decision for ceasefire was mutually agreed after the Directors General (Military Operations) of both countries contacted each other, and that President Donald Trump had played no role in it. Our leadership also agrees to solicit the US President’s mediation over Kashmir issue. The Indian leaders, as usual, beat about the bush that the Kashmir issue is a bilateral issue between the two countries and no third party intercession is acceptable to them.
Would the US leadership be willing to antagonize India by coming closer to Pakistan is the moot question to be answered. Apparently, the US has a deeper strategic partnership with India in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and other security agreements such as Logistical Exchange Memorandum (LEMOA), Communication Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA); support for membership of Nuclear Supply Group and above all, China containment axis. The US relations with Pakistan, at best, would be transactional and would not have any greater impact on the current geo-political and geo-strategic equations in the region. However, all this depends on what political and strategic role Pakistan could play to advance the US interests in the region, or in the current war between Iran and Israel, and how India would view this budding relationship between Pakistan and USA.
The Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir must have eloquently presented the concerns of Pakistan and solicited the US help to resolve the dispute with India on IWT. Narendra Modi has been having an unsettling itch to avenge his humiliation in the brief war from 7-10 May. Maybe, he will not undertake a military adventure but he would tamper with the flow of the Western rivers forcing Pakistan to accept changes in the terms of IWT. The US could salvage the Indus Water Treaty which was signed by the two countries under the mediation of the World Bank. We are not certain how far President Donald Trump could pressurize the Indian leaders to start talks with Pakistan as promised to him while accepting the ceasefire, and how effectively FM Syed Asim Munir has presented the case of Pakistan.
The IWT is the jugular vein of Pakistan.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.