Tensions between Pakistan and India have flared up again and this time, the situation looks particularly volatile. The already fragile relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbors took a dangerous turn on April 22, 2025, when a horrific incident in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, left 26 tourists dead after unknown assailants opened fire. Without waiting for a proper investigation, India pointed fingers at Pakistan, alleging the attackers were linked to The Resistance Front (TRF), a pro-Kashmir secessionist group. However, no concrete evidence has been presented to support this claim. This hasty accusation has only inflamed tensions and led to serious diplomatic and legal fallout.
In response to the attack, India took the dramatic step of unilaterally withdrawing from the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 a longstanding agreement seen as a symbol of cooperation between the two countries. Pakistan quickly condemned the move. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif denounced India’s claims and called for a “neutral and transparent investigation,” labeling the accusations as yet another baseless blame game. The attack has been described as a possible false flag operation by the Pakistani side. Pakistan then closed its airspace to Indian aircraft in retaliation, further escalating an already dangerous situation.
Water has always been a critical issue for Pakistan a matter of national security. Any attempt by India to restrict or redirect water flow from shared rivers is considered a red line. While India currently lacks the infrastructure to withhold such volumes of water it doesn’t have the reservoirs needed any attempt to build them would be viewed as a provocative act that could push the two countries closer to open conflict. With both nations possessing nuclear weapons, the consequences of such escalation are too severe to ignore.
What’s equally disturbing is how the incident has been used to malign Pakistan on the global stage. India has framed it as yet another example of Pakistan’s alleged ties to terrorism again, without presenting proof. While Pakistan continues to call for calm and legal due process, India, as a nuclear power and influential regional player, is behaving irresponsibly. The incident has even stirred unrest within India itself, where Kashmiris reportedly face growing harassment and discrimination.
If powerful countries can violate laws without consequence, then what purpose do those laws serve?
From a legal standpoint, India’s unilateral withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty doesn’t just risk political repercussions it’s also a violation of international law. Under the well-established riparian doctrine, downstream states like Pakistan are entitled to uninterrupted water flow, and upstream states such as India are forbidden from disrupting it unilaterally. India’s decision violates this fundamental principle, which forms the backbone of water-sharing norms around the world.
From a legal standpoint, India’s unilateral withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty doesn’t just risk political repercussions it’s also a violation of international law. Under the well-established riparian doctrine, downstream states like Pakistan are entitled to uninterrupted water flow, and upstream states such as India are forbidden from disrupting it unilaterally. India’s decision violates this fundamental principle, which forms the backbone of water-sharing norms around the world.
Additionally, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969) strengthens Pakistan’s argument. Article 26 requires that all treaties be honored in good faith. Article 42 makes it clear that no party can walk away from a treaty unless the treaty itself permits it or both parties agree. India appears to have ignored these requirements altogether.
In fact, the Indus Waters Treaty itself includes built-in mechanisms to handle disputes. Article 9 calls for consultation and arbitration, while Articles 11 and 12 state clearly that the treaty can’t be revoked unilaterally. Article XII (4) also requires at least 12 months’ notice before any suspension can take place, a step India skipped entirely. In other words, its actions are not just provocative; they’re unlawful by the very standards both nations agreed to.
This latest move also casts doubt on the future of other agreements, like the, Simla Accord. . That agreement emphasized resolving Kashmir and other bilateral issues peacefully and established the Line of Control as a working boundary. If India can unilaterally scrap one treaty, how can Pakistan trust that any agreement will be honored moving forward? This undermines decades of diplomacy and could force Pakistan to seek redress through international forums.
What’s even more frustrating is the international community’s apparent double standard. Pakistan is often criticized, sanctioned, and placed on watch lists for alleged ties to terrorism, but India’s actions rarely face the same scrutiny. There is growing evidence of Indian support for anti-Pakistan groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which have carried out attacks inside Pakistan. If Pakistan is held accountable, shouldn’t India be as well?
The threat of war isn’t theoretical. We’ve seen how quickly things escalated after the Pulwama attack and the Balakot air strikes. That crisis showed us that while nuclear weapons might prevent full-scale war, they don’t stop smaller, more frequent clashes, what’s known as the “stability-instability paradox.” Back then, Pakistan de-escalated the situation by returning an Indian pilot. The question now is: will India show the same level of restraint?
So far, the signs are not encouraging. India’s response has been rash, not measured. If this situation continues to spiral, and the global community doesn’t intervene, the risk of war is very real. And should conflict break out, the blame won’t be equally shared. It will lie with those who escalated matters and disregarded international norms.
Finally, this crisis exposes a broader failure the declining strength of international institutions meant to uphold justice and peace. If powerful countries can violate laws without consequence, then what purpose do those laws serve? We’ve already seen this erosion of accountability in conflicts like Gaza. Now, it’s happening again in South Asia. If justice only applies to the weak and never to the strong, then the very foundation of international order is at risk.
The writer has worked with UNDP and can be reached at [email protected]