ISLAMABAD: With the Sharif family split in the middle over how to handle the Nawaz ouster, there are visible signs that a direct confrontation policy is being preferred, despite indications that quiet warnings have been conveyed not to do so.
Sharif, feeling badly hurt emotionally and in a state of vengeance, wants to use his public muscle against state institutions. The problem is that he cannot publicly identify his targets.
Someone close to Nawaz said he thinks he has been ousted from his office but he has not been deprived of his powers. He still runs the show, he believes.
Hawks, who gained traction in the Abbasi cabinet, want to go for the judiciary and the security establishment although they cannot come up with a justifiable public reason to do so.
The Nawaz disqualification, on purely legal grounds, does not provide a case for a political uproar, although pro-Nawaz media and legal sections are attacking the judges and the army, some directly, some through innuendo.
Other soft line peddlers, including Shehbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, are warning of political and even physical consequences but they are not being heard.
Insiders say how Nawaz should launch his protest march towards his home town Lahore has become one of the test cases.
After two days of confusion whether to use the motorway or the GT Road, although conflicting announcements of both were made, Nawaz is opting for a “now or never” approach in a ZA Bhutto-like rebellious mood. But rebellion against whom?
He has probably heard lawyer Asma Jahangir who publicly says he would not survive unless he shows his popular muscle.
Nawaz and his hawks think if he could suck in the judicial or the security establishment into this fray to take direct action against him, he would gain politically. He does not want to go down as a convicted corrupt leader.
Shehbaz Sharif and Nisar Ali Khan have separated from the Nawaz camp on this direct confrontation policy, publicly distancing on the record. Both spoke on Friday, saying the same thing in their own words.
Nisar spoke in his hometown and stated, “Politicians are today not differentiating between true and false, ‘halal’ and ‘haram’,” a direct reference to how politics has been used by the Sharifs for years.
Likewise, Shehbaz gave his own policy lines in Lahore. “PML-N political approach is based on principles of tolerance, harmony and mannerism.”
What this means is vague but speaking of tolerance and harmony in today’s electric, charged atmosphere means only one thing – no direct confrontation.
Nawaz Sharif met journalists on Saturday but gave mixed signals, partly because the crowd of media men got so big that he could not say openly what he had in mind.
He was questioned only by a couple of journalists on his policies and a senior editor even advised him not to adopt the policy of confrontation. Nawaz did not clearly say what he wanted but vaguely defended his tenure and spoke in generalities.
Before the meeting began, PML-N had announced that Nawaz would use the motorway, and interchanges and exits where he would address the crowds were also identified.
Then came reports from inside the Nawaz camp that security agencies had cautioned, almost point blank, not to use the GT Road for his march as military establishments – Kharian, Jhelum and Gujranwala – were on the way and a crowd could become a serious security threat. “Stay away” was the message.
Nawaz admitted the security concerns when he saw the media men but as soon as his meeting was over, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Amir Muqam saw him. What they would have told Nawaz can only be guessed but they are hawks and opportunists, in their own ways.
Reports then started coming out that the programme to use the motorway had been changed and the GT Road was now to be used starting Wednesday (three days later).
Shortly thereafter Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan met his deposed leader in Punjab House. His message could only have been to exercise caution.
But then came the highly meaningful statement of Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa that “we are heading towards a normalised Pakistan where writ of the state and supremacy of law would be second to none…”
It is hard to keep track of the super fast developing situation. On the one side the Supreme Court has disqualified the PM declaring him a dishonest person, who cannot be trusted. On the other the entire new, or old, cabinet expressed full faith and trust in a man condemned by the highest court. They promised to follow him, no matter what.
Yet at another level, the security establishment was asking the former PM to show restraint but he wants to challenge everyone, ignoring his own family and close associates.
Then the army chief makes the statement emphasising that the writ of the state and supremacy of law were second to none, meaning that the writ and law were sacrosanct – something that would not be allowed to be played with.
A lot will then depend on how the march to Lahore takes shape. Polarisation in Islamabad is at its height and if reports of planned political violence are correct, things could get really murky.
These unconfirmed reports hinted that security agencies had arrested two gunmen outside the National Assembly who could have targeted anyone. Sheikh Rasheed was heckled by scores of people but luckily nothing serious happened.
Imran Khan has been warned to increase his security and in such a tense situation, the judiciary will open cases against the Nawaz family and his associates, some of whom have rejoined the new cabinet. Saner counsel has to prevail as no one will benefit if things got out of control.
Published in Daily Times, August 6th 2017.