Hiding behind the dagger and stabbing with the cloak! This is how Ken Clarke ridiculed the attempted failed coup against Gordon Brown in 2010. The orchestrators of this coup, Labour’s own Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, lacked both ambition and talent. That is why this coup started with an erroneous and empty email before midnight. That error was corrected later but the time to strike had gone. Ken Clarke was right; Labour should have learnt from the Conservatives to how efficiently hide behind the cloak and stab with the dagger. After all, the latter has transformed this into an art form! So much so that the next victim of this Machiavellian manoeuvre may be Rishi Sunak.
This is not to say that political fatigue, a term that has found universal acclaim and has been the reason for the downfall of many a head of government, hasn’t had a part to play. It has but to a lesser extent. In recent memory, Labour was only in power from 1997 to 2010 and that was the time of Tony Blair’s New Labour! Both sides of that Labour government were buffeted by long-lasting Tory regimes in one form or the other. That is one reason why the sitting government of the day is facing the brunt of the electorate. Thus, adding to the headache of the Sunak administration.
Firstly, if there ever was a sign of political fatigue and which way the wind is blowing is the result of by-elections. In February, the Tory party lost two by-elections in very safe Conservative seats. This fact itself wasn’t astounding – incumbents generally tend not to do well in by-elections – what was surprising was the margin of victory. To win both contests, Labour overturned majorities of 11,000 and 18,000! This is quite astonishing considering the low turnout. While by-election success is no barometer for the general election, it does indicate that the ship is sinking fast!
Labour was only in power from 1997 to 2010 and that was the time of Tony Blair’s New Labour!
Secondly, the status of self-serving pledges. Rishi Sunak promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt falling, cut NHS waiting lists and stop migrant boats. These self-inflicted vows remain in tatters barring one and that too has nothing to do with the Prime Minister. Inflation has fallen albeit still around double than Bank of England’s target of 2 percent.
This pledge was made more than a year ago and considering that inflation records yearly variation in prices and once an increase was factored in for 12 months, inflation was widely expected to fall anyway!
This was also the consensus of all economists and think tanks. If Rishi Sunak has caused this then he may as well also claim to make night follow day and then day follow night! The economy is officially in recession with 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent contraction respectively in the last two reported quarters. Instead of falling, debt has risen to 88.3 percent of GDP in November 2023 from 85.1 percent in December 2022.
It is expected to keep on increasing and is only forecasted to fall from 93.2 percent in 2028 to 92.8 percent in 2029 but that too underpinned by unrealistic public spending cuts. October 2023 stats show that NHS waiting lists have increased by a whopping 500,000 as compared to January 2023. Illegal migration through the English Channel has fallen, down 36 percent in 2023 as opposed to 2022. However, the government’s Rwanda plan is in ruins and is expected to find more hurdles, particularly at a time when the weather eases up and kick-starts the migration crossings.
Thirdly, what do the pollsters think? Opinion surveys are a tricky business and should always be taken with a pinch of salt. Having said that, almost all polls paint a gruesome picture of the Tories. As per February 2024 data, the government’s favourability fares poorly with 83 percent dissatisfied overall and 73 percent dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak.
Labour holds a lead of 27 percent over the Conservatives as favourites in the next election. The only silver lining to the cloud? Unfavourable vote for Keir Starmer is only a fraction less than that of Rishi Sunak! Imagine that – we are not spoilt for choice come the next general election! The perception of the Tories is so dire that Andrew Neil, right wing broadcaster and strong Tory supporter, believes that Labour may be unstoppable while the other side has lost all credibility.
Fourthly, what is happening in the incumbent party? Former Conservative Deputy Chairman Lee Anderson has recently defected to Reform UK showcasing that the new party is gaining ground, especially snarling in the disfranchised Tory base. A millionaire Tory donor Frank Hester, who allegedly made racist comments about Diane Abbott, remains unscathed and his donation has not returned.
There are also widespread reports that a plan is afoot to have a new leader take the Tories into the general election – perhaps Penny Mordaunt or Kemi Badenoch. All of this is summed up by Tory activist Tim Montgomerie, “I do not think this can go on. I do not think Rishi Sunak will be Tory leader by the time of the next election. I think the mood among Tory MPs is turning”.
It seems it is only time that is preserving Rishi Sunak’s shelf life. That time may be coming to an end.
The writer is Director Programmes for an international ICT organization based in the UK and writes on corporate strategy, socio-economic and geopolitical issues.