One would think it is irrefutable logic that the goal for every nation state should be to increase the prosperity of its citizens and not to propagate some ill-conceived notions of national security, strategic depth or other such perplexing concepts. The head of the Pakistan Army and, on most counts, the single most powerful individual in Pakistan, will do well to heed the enduring words of Bill Clinton’s 1992 election campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid.” General Kayani’s comments widely reported prior to the Osama bin Laden fiasco that “the nation’s honour cannot be traded for prosperity” bring to the fore the particular mindset which has brought the country to the current abyss. I should hasten to add that this is not a novel concept; please note Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s (in)famous “we will eat grass…” comments in relation to the economic feasibility of Pakistan’s much vaunted nuclear programme.
The fact of the matter is that Pakistan is in the bottom quartile of all economic and social indicators, be it the Human Development Index (at 125 globally) or the global prosperity rankings devised by the Legatum Institute which ranks Pakistan at 109 out of 110 countries in its analysis (above only Zimbabwe!). These figures underscore the point that is devastatingly obvious to everybody in Pakistan these days, i.e. the overall standard of living of the common person in Pakistan is excruciatingly low and on a downward spiral.
The single largest factor in this slide is the ‘gorilla in the room’ also known as the military/intelligence apparatus where Pakistan ranks in the top 40 (at 33 globally) in overall (disclosed) military spending as compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In all likelihood, this figure does not take into account the billions in undisclosed and covert aid and the quantum must be much higher when factoring these in.
In fact, a closer analysis of the SIPRI data indicates something even more alarming. Pakistan’s military spending over the last 20 years is an astounding 4.33 percent of GDP which brings it in the top (or bottom) 20 worldwide. The other ‘culprits’ are primarily Gulf and Middle Eastern states, who surely have the dollars to undertake such exorbitant spending, and a few other notable exceptions like Liberia, Angola and Burundi. The US also has an honourable position here with 3.9 percent of its enormous GDP spent on the military. The impact of such disproportionate level of sustained spending cannot be underestimated given that this takes away valuable resources from the much-needed social spending whose impact is only felt over a period of time. As a comparison, if one looks at countries much poorer than Pakistan on a GDP per capita basis but with very comparable human development scores like Kenya and Bangladesh, their 20-year military spending is only 1.7 percent and 1.1 percent of GDP respectively.
The time has come to challenge the status quo and re-route our precious resources to economic and social development and consign this honour/national security argument to its rightful place. One of the most urgent and important steps would be to normalise relations with the auld-enemy India in order to take advantage of the world’s fourth largest economy at our doorstep.
It is clear that there are widely divergent thoughts in India with regards to Pakistan, ranging from rational to belligerent to downright brainless, i.e. those who believe that Pakistan is the cause of all the world’s ills. However, one has to focus on the sane ones among them and, furthermore, give them ammunition through our actions and deeds to strengthen their argument in front of the domestic audience.
And there are those sane voices who are presenting this case, as it was very eloquently argued in The Hindu on May 5, 2011: “the death of bin Laden presents an opportunity for India and Pakistan to reshape their relations in a constructive way rather than for India to indulge in short-sighted triumphalism. Irrespective of how the al Qaeda leader’s departure affects the war in Afghanistan, and what strategies Pakistan’s generals are planning in that country, this is India’s chance to persuade the people of Pakistan that it is not the mortal enemy that it has been made out to be by their security establishment.”
It is time for the sane voices in Pakistan to ensure that focus returns to the population’s prosperity, otherwise we will surely end up ‘eating grass’ as prophesied in Mr Bhutto’s memorable words.
And the time is now!
The writer is an investment banking professional based in Dubai and currently running a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia focussed investment banking platform. He can be reached at [email protected]