Under the auspices of the government of Pakistan, several agreements have been negotiated since 2007 between Shia and Sunni tribal leaders of Kurram. The most famous among them is the Murree agreement signed in October 2008. The agreement asks for armed tribal groups to vacate their positions, the repatriation of Shia and Sunni IDPs and supply of food and medicine to the affected areas. The most important point of the agreement is this: “Political administration (Kurram) or any other concerned government institutions or agents shall be considered part of the plan/conspiracy to destroy peace in Kurram, if they were not fulfilling their responsibility to counter anyone trying to destroy peace in Kurram.” But the government has failed to enforce the Murree agreement. Both Shia and Sunni tribesmen agree that the government is deliberately not imposing its writ in Kurram. The tribal leaders who signed the Murree agreement neither have the power to control the armed militant groups, both Shia and Sunni, nor have the authority to formally hold the government of Pakistan responsible for failing or being reluctant to impose its writ on the warring groups in Kurram. As a result, the bloodshed continued to happen and there were sectarian killings in 2008 and 2010 that also displaced Shais and Sunnis in the area. The government then embarked on another round of negotiations with Shia and Sunni tribal leaders in 2010 led by the leaders of the Haqqani terrorists, the ‘good Taliban’ of the military establishment of Pakistan. The Shia and Sunni tribal leaders were roped in to the negotiations — they were told by the Haqqani family members that they (the Haqqanis) have been directed by the ISI to lead the negotiations. The negotiations led to a Kurram peace deal signed in February 2011. The text of that deal looks ridiculous. It appeals to the Pakistani authorities to implement the Murree agreement rather than questioning them for constantly failing to do so in the last two and half years. The text asks the people of Kurram to cooperate with the government in the implementation of the state writ — as if the people of Kurram are the ones stopping the government from enforcing its writ. The deal was only for one month and there were no guarantees that peace would hold after that one month. The result was that insecurity continued in Kurram, including the closure of the Tal-Parachinar road for Shia travellers. Now last week there has been another deal signed between Shia and Sunni tribal leaders under the auspices of the Political Agent Kurram. The deal requires opening of the Tal-Parachinar road and repatriation of the Shia and Sunni IDPs. As the first step towards the implementation of the deal, the minority Sunnis displaced from Parachinar are being repatriated. There are two problems with this deal. One, the government compensation offered to the IDPs — Rs 300,000 for a fully damaged house, Rs 50,000 for partially damaged house and nothing for damage to businesses, such as shops — is too little for the material loss that the IDPs have suffered. Two, the minority Sunni IDPs, about 6,000 people, who are being repatriated, are scared of the Shia militant groups in Parachinar. They vividly remember how in November 2006, the Shia militants besieged them. The killing of the Sunni minority, and looting and burning of their properties continued for six days and the Pakistan Army as well as the Kurram Militia, which were deployed in the city since the sectarian clashes in April 2007, remained unconcerned spectators. On the sixth day some frustrated young men from Kurram held a protest demonstration in front of the Governor’s House in Peshawar, which moved the government into some action that was too little, too late and even suspicious. Instead of imposing the writ of the state in the city, the government evacuated the Sunnis from Parachinar and dumped them in Sunni-majority areas outside Parachinar. The Sunni IDPs want the Shia militant groups in Parachinar to be disarmed by the government. But could the Shia armed groups be disarmed or is it even fair to ask them to disarm? If they disarm, the anti-Shia terrorist groups from elsewhere in Pakistan will begin a Shia massacre in Parachinar. Thus the Shia militant groups, who — in the total absence of the state — are protecting the Shia population of Parachinar who face an existential threat from anti-Shia terrorist groups, cannot and should not disarm as long as the state has not ensured the protection of the Shias from the anti-Shia terrorist groups. The issue is that the military establishment of Pakistan wants safe passage via the Shia dominated upper Kurram for the Haqqani Taliban to conduct cross-border attacks in Afghanistan. It is for this purpose that the writ of the state has been wilfully withdrawn from the area, leaving it at the mercy of armed sectarian groups to exploit the sectarian or tribal disputes so as to create enough insecurity to hide the cross-border movement of the Haqqani Taliban in the area. The establishment also made an attempt to raise the socio-political status in Kurram of the Haqqani Taliban leaders, who are aliens for the people of Kurram, by engaging them in negotiations for peace between the Shias and the Sunnis in 2010. The attempt failed because the some powerful Shia groups had serious reservations about the Haqqani Taliban who have the blood of innocent Shias on their hands. The attempt, if it had been successful, would have provided an excellent excuse to the ISI for plausible deniability of its double dealing in the war on terror. It would have been easier to argue to the outside world that the Haqqanis are respectable tribal leaders in Kurram, where they even made peace between the Shias and the Sunnis who have been pillaging each other since 2007 and thus any action against the Haqqani Taliban under the US pressure will annoy the ‘fierce autonomous’ tribesmen of Kurram, pitting them against the Pakistani state in a violent encounter. With the beginning of implementation of this new deal coupled with the lack of state writ over the militant groups, it looks like Kurram is heading towards another round of bloody sectarian clashes to create chaos in the area to hide the cross-border movement of the Haqqani Taliban. A group called the Youth of Parachinar has also expressed a similar apprehension by saying that the newest peace deal is an attempt to give shelter to the Haqqani Taliban in upper Kurram. I pray that the Youth of Parachinar and my apprehensions prove wrong. But given the dubious state role in the past violence in Kurram, there is every reason to doubt the recent ‘peace’ moves in Kurram. (Concluded) The writer is the author of Taliban and Anti-Taliban