Looking for a prime minister

In systems of parliamentary democracy, all members of a cabinet are collectively responsible for the decisions made. They all have the same status and the prime minister is no more than the first among equals. That is not always the case in actual practice. If his standing within the ruling party is good and firm, he will normally be regarded as the head of the government.
It would be an exaggeration to say that Yousaf Raza Gilani answers the above description of an effective prime minister. There is no significant accomplishment during his term in office for which he can claim credit. He is meant to be the guardian of public order; instead, he has ignored, evaded, and violated the law in a variety of ways. On April 26, 2012, the Supreme Court convicted him of contempt and sentenced him to imprisonment for a few moments (until the rising of the court). While there is a certain amount of ambiguity surrounding the question, the dominant view seems to be that his conviction disqualifies him from holding any public office, and that as a result he ceases to be a member of the National Assembly and that he should resign his office forthwith. He says he will do no such thing, but it is possible that the chief election commissioner will disqualify him and he will lose his office eventually.
A number of possibilities will then emerge. The PPP and its allies may nominate another person to replace him. If this course of action does not materialise, the leader of the existing opposition may be invited to form a government. If this option also turns out to be unviable, the assembly may be dissolved and a new election called.
We cannot predict the results. Indications are that a fresh election will also bring in a hung parliament. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) will emerge as major parties in the National Assembly. There is a possibility that the PPP will do poorly in Punjab. A few weeks ago, President Zardari appointed ten Punjabis as federal ministers in the hope that they would mend the party’s fences in the province but this gamble may not produce the desired result. The party has a vote bank in southern Punjab, and peasants and workers elsewhere will vote for it, regardless of its poor performance. But on the whole, incumbency will work to its disadvantage.
The PML-N is well grounded in Punjab, especially in the central and northern districts. Its government in the province may not be the best of managers, but very few scandals of corruption and gross mismanagement surround it. Shahbaz Sharif, PML-N’S deputy chairperson and chief minister of Punjab, is perceived as an extremely hard working and dedicated public official. The party is expected to win a majority of the national as well as the provincial assembly seats assigned to Punjab.
The electoral performance of a party will depend partly on the identity of the person who heads it and manages its campaign. Asif Ali Zardari is the man in question in the case of the PPP. He is doubtless a skillful manipulator, but his ability to win the hearts of people and inspire them is problematic. His term as president will expire a few months after the general election in 2013. He may wish to become prime minister but that possibility can be ruled out, partly because his party may not win a majority of seats in the assembly and because any coalition that forms the government will not accept him as its leader.
There can be no doubt that Mian Nawaz Sharif, the head of the PML-N, is very much in the running for the prime minister’s post. He has been trying to persuade us that if he becomes prime minister again, his goals and operational style will be more wholesome than they were during his two terms in office in the 1990s. He appears to be more moderate and sensible. He also wants to project himself as a righteous person who will make no deals with the vile and wicked in politics. He will oppose them inside parliament and outside in rallies and long marches if necessary. He has been threatening to do all of this if Mr Gilani does not resign. Mr Gilani has declared loud and clear that he will continue to function as the prime minister unless the assembly votes him out of office. If the past is to be a guide to the future course of action, Mr Sharif will not match his words with requisite action. He has earlier given Mr Gilani’s government ultimatums to the effect that if it does not mend its ways by a certain date, he will launch a mass movement to overthrow it. These dates have come and gone but none of the projected movements have been launched. It does not necessarily follow that he will be shy of action when it is needed. But his recent conduct does make us wonder if he will be inclined to act firmly and energetically when the nation is confronted with a crisis. In any case, we cannot dismiss the possibility that he will do reasonably well as prime minister if he reaches that position.
Imran Khan is avowedly a contender for the prime minister’s office. After 16 years in the wilderness, he has recently jumped into the political arena with a bang. He gives the impression of being impeccably honest and trustworthy. He promises to provide an administration that is dedicated to the public interest and one that will eradicate corruption within months of taking office. He may not be able to abolish all of the adversities that currently afflict this country but he will try to mitigate their intensity. Sceptics say that he does not have a specific agenda. I do not find this to be particularly troublesome. We know of politicians and parties that have entered an election campaign with printed manifestos. It transpired later that they were not worth the paper they were written on. They were forgotten or ignored after the election. I believe that the details of Khan’s agenda will surface as he goes along. It should be noted that no government can anticipate and prescribe solutions for all the problems that may arise during its term of office. Khan is likely to be the first preference of possibly a large majority of the voters for the prime minister’s post. Needless to say, this will happen if his organisation is able to find its feet and convey its message to people before the election comes along.

In systems of parliamentary
democracy, all members of a cabinet are collectively responsible for the decisions made. They all have the same status and the prime minister is no more than the first among equals. That is not always the case in actual practice. If his standing within the ruling party is good and firm, he will normally be regarded as the head of the government.
It would be an exaggeration to say that Yousaf Raza Gilani answers the above description of an effective prime minister. There is no significant accomplishment during his term in office for which he can claim credit. He is meant to be the guardian of public order; instead, he has ignored, evaded, and violated the law in a variety of ways. On April 26, 2012, the Supreme Court convicted him of contempt and sentenced him to imprisonment for a few moments (until the rising of the court). While there is a certain amount of ambiguity surrounding the question, the dominant view seems to be that his conviction disqualifies him from holding any public office, and that as a result he ceases to be a member of the National Assembly and that he should resign his office forthwith. He says he will do no such thing, but it is possible that the chief election commissioner will disqualify him and he will lose his office eventually.
A number of possibilities will then emerge. The PPP and its allies may nominate another person to replace him. If this course of action does not materialise, the leader of the existing opposition may be invited to form a government. If this option also turns out to be unviable, the assembly may be dissolved and a new election called.
We cannot predict the results. Indications are that a fresh election will also bring in a hung parliament. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI) will emerge as major parties in the National Assembly. There is a possibility that the PPP will do poorly in Punjab. A few weeks ago, President Zardari appointed ten Punjabis as federal ministers in the hope that they would mend the party’s fences in the province but this gamble may not produce the desired result. The party has a vote bank in southern Punjab, and peasants and workers elsewhere will vote for it, regardless of its poor performance. But on the whole, incumbency will work to its disadvantage.
The PML-N is well grounded in Punjab, especially in the central and northern districts. Its government in the province may not be the best of managers, but very few scandals of corruption and gross mismanagement surround it. Shahbaz Sharif, PML-N’S deputy chairperson and chief minister of Punjab, is perceived as an extremely hard working and dedicated public official. The party is expected to win a majority of the national as well as the provincial assembly seats assigned to Punjab.
The electoral performance of a party will depend partly on the identity of the person who heads it and manages its campaign. Asif Ali Zardari is the man in question in the case of the PPP. He is doubtless a skillful manipulator, but his ability to win the hearts of people and inspire them is problematic. His term as president will expire a few months after the general election in 2013. He may wish to become prime minister but that possibility can be ruled out, partly because his party may not win a majority of seats in the assembly and because any coalition that forms the government will not accept him as its leader.
There can be no doubt that Mian Nawaz Sharif, the head of the PML-N, is very much in the running for the prime minister’s post. He has been trying to persuade us that if he becomes prime minister again, his goals and operational style will be more wholesome than they were during his two terms in office in the 1990s. He appears to be more moderate and sensible. He also wants to project himself as a righteous person who will make no deals with the vile and wicked in politics. He will oppose them inside parliament and outside in rallies and long marches if necessary. He has been threatening to do all of this if Mr Gilani does not resign. Mr Gilani has declared loud and clear that he will continue to function as the prime minister unless the assembly votes him out of office. If the past is to be a guide to the future course of action, Mr Sharif will not match his words with requisite action. He has earlier given Mr Gilani’s government ultimatums to the effect that if it does not mend its ways by a certain date, he will launch a mass movement to overthrow it. These dates have come and gone but none of the projected movements have been launched. It does not necessarily follow that he will be shy of action when it is needed. But his recent conduct does make us wonder if he will be inclined to act firmly and energetically when the nation is confronted with a crisis. In any case, we cannot dismiss the possibility that he will do reasonably well as prime minister if he reaches that position.
Imran Khan is avowedly a contender for the prime minister’s office. After 16 years in the wilderness, he has recently jumped into the political arena with a bang. He gives the impression of being impeccably honest and trustworthy. He promises to provide an administration that is dedicated to the public interest and one that will eradicate corruption within months of taking office. He may not be able to abolish all of the adversities that currently afflict this country but he will try to mitigate their intensity. Sceptics say that he does not have a specific agenda. I do not find this to be particularly troublesome. We know of politicians and parties that have entered an election campaign with printed manifestos. It transpired later that they were not worth the paper they were written on. They were forgotten or ignored after the election. I believe that the details of Khan’s agenda will surface as he goes along. It should be noted that no government can anticipate and prescribe solutions for all the problems that may arise during its term of office. Khan is likely to be the first preference of possibly a large majority of the voters for the prime minister’s post. Needless to say, this will happen if his organisation is able to find its feet and convey its message to people before the election comes along.

The writer, professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, is currently a visiting professor at the Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at dranwar@lahoreschool.edu.pk