Karachi rolled out its first set of fifty eco-friendly electric buses in January. This marked the entry of pure electric vehicles (EVs) for mass transit in Pakistan. Before this, the Peshawar (Bus Rapid Transit) BRT ran on hybrid engines. “EV” (Electric Vehicle) is a new buzzword, and there is a rapid rise in the adoption of EVs globally to achieve carbon neutrality on the roads. Pakistan, in line with this global trend, is also pursuing additional climate-friendly options and has already introduced the Pakistan Electric Vehicles Policy 2020-2025. The government is pushing for EV technology by providing incentives for the manufacturing of both locally produced and imported parts. The auto and related industries of Pakistan can capitalise on these opportunities by tapping into these incentives amid a tight economy.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that by 2025, the cost of EVs will be comparable to that of FFVs globally. For now, the initial capital cost for EVs is high but is expected to become much cheaper than the FFVs in the coming years owing to various governments’ incentives worldwide in the form of low import duties, low general sale taxes, and lower toll taxes. Adjusting for current fuel prices, an EV’s running cost is one-third that of FFVs. The demand for batteries in the global market is going to rise in the next few years. In 2021, the shipments of batteries were 94 per cent higher than in 2020. Traditional lithium-ion batteries will remain relevant, but graphene batteries are the future. They are called ‘supercapacitors’ because they can charge and discharge quicker than traditional lithium-ion batteries. Pakistan is among the top ten graphene producers in the world, and it is an opportunity for Pakistan’s battery manufacturing business to tap into this massive potential by getting involved in both manufacturing and recycling of batteries.
What Pakistan needs more than anything is to invest in research in building an infrastructure and technological solutions.
Currently, utilising EVs for mass transit is an excellent solution to multiple problems afflicting transit and transport in a country like Pakistan, where transport not only relies on heavy oil imports but also impacts air quality directly. However, there are two main requirements for EVs to function. One is the need for EV infrastructure, such as easily and conveniently accessible charging stations. The second is the provision of electricity for these charging stations. The government has laid out a well-structured plan for the development of infrastructure in major cities, commercial and government buildings, and motorways and highways to be implemented by relevant authorities. The government plans to lower the cost of electricity for these charging stations to attract private investments. However, it is the provision of power that remains a big challenge.
How can the power demand be met in the face of a prolonged energy crisis? Ideally, an EV should be charged using renewables, however, given the grid storage capacity limitation, complete reliance is not yet a practical option for mass transit. Here too, lithium-ion batters can help in storing solar energy, but their implementation is limited to scale. Another type of battery called a “flow battery” can store this energy for relatively long hours, but the technology is currently expensive. Therefore, for the time being, Pakistan will have to use oil and coal, both imported and local, alongside solar to run the EV charging stations. According to the Pakistan Electricity Outlook 2022, the energy generation capacity installed by the government has led to a sustained energy surplus in Pakistan ranging from over 15 per cent in summers to over 40 per cent in winters. Therefore, consumers will be required to pay for this unused extra capacity, which is currently 900 billion rupees and will increase to 1600 billion rupees by 2030. This energy surplus can be directed toward EV charging stations. However, the use of fossil fuel-generated energy defeats the original purpose of EVs, which was to promote environmental cleanliness and reduce reliance on non-renewable sources of energy.
Nevertheless, the quantity of fossil fuels needed to power an EV is still half compared to the quantity required by an FFV when the energy mix involves both solar and coal. A report from the Vehicle Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy shows that compared to the normal gasoline-powered car, which generates 11,435 pounds of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions yearly, an average EV run on a grid mix produces 4,815 pounds of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions annually.
Starting with mass transit, Pakistan should gradually and in stages enter the EV market because it would take several years for the technology to fully mature. Meanwhile, the government can discourage the use of four-wheeler FFVs for private use by raising import duties on cars of 1000cc or above so the money can be diverted towards EVs import for public use under a carefully devised policy. However, what Pakistan needs more than anything is to invest in research in building an infrastructure and technological solutions that can support widespread EV use in the future and also seek to become a major player in the EV battery recycling business.
The autheor is a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS). She can be reached at casslahore@gmail.com.