ISIS stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and is simply referred to as Islamic State (IS) or Daish. Its origin was that of an offshoot of al Qaeda in Iraq in 1999 and it subsequently became independent in April 2013. It parted ways with al Qaeda when it defied the orders of Aiman al Zawahiri to kill fewer civilians in Syria and over control of the al Qaeda faction in Iraq. Today, both are competing to gain better influence over extremist groups around the world. IS is led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who is known to be a brutal and ruthless person. He has appointed himself as the khalifa of all Muslims and uses the name of Khalifa Ibrahim now. The organisation funds itself by collecting taxes in Syria, selling electricity and exporting oil.
IS aims to set up a caliphate system encompassing all Sunni Muslim areas around the globe with al-Baghdadi as its leader. It has seized control of Fallujah, Ramadi and Mosul in northern Iraq, all fairly populated areas and some areas in Syria, all totalling a substantial tract of land. In its ranks it has fighters from the UK, US, Europe and various Muslim countries. It publishes two English language magazines and releases videos. IS possesses a large amount of US military equipment seized from Iraqi forces. The organisation has large funds at its disposal comprising looted money from the banks of conquered areas, collection of taxes, illicit sale of oil and electricity.
It is a terrorist organisation and does not need huge or costly weapons to be effective. What is worth examining here is not the quality and quantity of military equipment held by IS but their effort to wage a war on a much broader front than can be tackled by the usual military responses. It must also be conceded that, so far, IS has been successful only where it has not been confronted by an appropriate military force.
One of the great advantages being enjoyed by IS is its large holding of territory and its recruitment of highly motivated individuals from all over the world. This provides a great opportunity to IS to train them and plan for major attacks anywhere in the world. The second advantage being enjoyed by IS is its access to millions of dollars of looted money and black market sale of oil that cannot be tracked by usual means. Combine the three factors of highly motivated volunteers, plenty of available empty space and almost unlimited funds, and the end result is not difficult to calculate.
The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statements on the issue have been generally comforting, indicating little threat to Pakistan. There have, however, been some analysts and government quarters that have expressed apprehensions on the issue. Most of the analytical write-ups about IS and its threat to different parts of the world have shown it to be much less than what has been publicised. It is a matter of opinion based on the facts available at this time. Perhaps it would be wiser to take IS more seriously than a benign phenomenon and adopt positive measures to safeguard oneself. Here, talking only about the threat to Pakistan, let me suggest a few pertinent points. These must be viewed in a realistic and practical manner without the usual exaggeration that our concerned departments invariably practice about themselves.
Pakistan is a country where systems, rules, regulations, procedures and their implementation cannot control the entry or exit of any dubious individual through its borders. Porous is not the word; our borders are regular open sieves, particularly in the west. So, when anybody claims that we will not permit any IS man to enter Pakistan, he is talking through his hat.
In August 2014, IS distributed pamphlets in Peshawar and the border areas of Afghanistan, published in Pashto and Dari languages. Former Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid and six other TTP commanders joined IS along with Hizbut Tahrir and Tehreek-e-Khilafat Pakistan, all pledging their allegiance to Baghdadi. There also has been wall chalking in Peshawar and a few other places where they have been quickly covered up. The IS charge of ‘Twitter bombs’ through modern technology has been most effective and is influencing millions. The most important point to understand is that their message will slowly creep into our lives before they physically need to invade us. This is so because we already have the necessary ingredients existing in our country. There is public disgruntlement, lack of state writ in the tribal areas, corrupt government practices, a sliding economy and political infighting, with no solution in sight. This is the kind of situation where our youngsters, particularly the educated lot, would eagerly respond to the call given by IS. And we have no counter narrative. Who will provide that? Our politicians, our religious leaders? None of them would even acknowledge the threat till it overtakes us and then it would be too late. Perhaps we deserve that.
The writer served the PAF for 35 years as a fighter pilot and holds a Masters degree in Strategic Studies