Let me start with making it clear right from the outset: I believe removing a government through a march on the capital and paralysing it sets a very dangerous precedent for the future of Pakistan. A few thousand protesters cannot be allowed to hold the state hostage and force the ouster of a government because this precedent will lead to anarchy. Having said that, the outcome of this crisis will not be determined by a principled position but by ground realities and a deeper analysis of ground realities needs to be carried out to figure out what brought us here, where things are heading and what needs to be done.
Enough has been written about the role of the civil-military relationship in causing this crisis. Of course, the shadows lurking over the credibility of the 2013 elections is what lies at the core of the confrontation. The Model Town incident crippled the government and made it devoid of much legitimacy and credibility. However, there is a need to understand the phenomenon that forms the undercurrents of the emergence of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and its extreme tendencies.
I do not agree with Imran Khan or his methods but it will be dishonest to say that he does not command mass support. Imran Khan has inspired a large segment of the Pakistani population, manifested by the eight million votes his party got in the last elections. His support base is mostly young and this gives him a demographic advantage over other political entities. Also, apart from Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, he is the only leader in Pakistan who has managed to raise a party political machine without drawing room wheeling dealing.
Yet the crux of Imran’s politics looks very simple. He has built his entire message around one issue: corruption. His game is simple. The current lot is corrupt and so the system needs an outsider with a clean reputation and track record to reform it. Interestingly, this message is resounding very well with the youth and middle class. The biggest takers of Imran’s message are northern and central Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi. Imran is probably the first politician after Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to have a following in both the Pashtun and Hazara areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. If this is not enough, his support base in Karachi comprises Pashtuns in Sohrab Goth and Urdu speaking areas in DHA and Clifton. How has Imran managed this? Why is a leader from Lahore making inroads into the polity of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Karachi, and why is his charisma not doing wonders in south Punjab, interior Sindh and Balochistan?
There is only one common denominator in Imran’s support base: continuous upward economic mobility. Central and northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi have undergone a not so visible but rapid entrepreneurial revolution since the 1970s. A new class has emerged that has built its life on business ventures and skill-based, white collar private sector jobs, taking advantage of the opening up of Pakistan’s economy and globalisation. That class has sizable disposable income, has a desire for continuous upward mobility and knows the traits of its respective fields.
With this class’s influence and economic muscle ever growing, it competes with the old rich for economic opportunities. In a system where the government has extensive control over allocation of economic opportunity, the rules are set in a way that favours older players. This is where the chants of corruption sound as a rallying cry for this class. And Imran has captured the imagination of this class skilfully. The desire of this class for fast, upward mobility sees in the PTI a political platform that can help them disrupt the old system and make room for a more favourable economic field. This desire to disrupt the system manifests in extremist tendencies and the self-righteous tone in the PTI’s politics.
The creation of a favourable economic field is where this whole dynamic gets very interesting. There are two ways forward. First, this class through increased political and social power increases its influence in allocation of economic opportunity. Second, the desire leads to the creation of a level playing economic field, reducing the state’s hegemony and control over the allocation of resources. If the PTI opts for the latter, it will eventually settle this issue once and for all. If it opts for the former, there is an opportunity for some other political force to rise and capture centre-stage of the Pakistani polity. Pakistan is yearning for a level playing economic field with an entrepreneurial and innovation driven economy. If the system wants to survive, it will have to find ways from within to ensure this level playing economic field. Let us all pray that eventual change comes from within.
The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik