What would the US economy really look like under President Donald Trump? on November 7, 2016Could President Donald Trump deliver on his promises? The problem – and this applies to all presidential candidates – is that the economic levers that a president can pull are much weaker than in other western democracies. There are two reasons for this. First, the system is designed that way, with its checks and balances. […]
Parliament vote on Article 50 means a soft Brexit, the pound is jumping up because of it on November 6, 2016 Well, we know what the financial markets want. The sharp reaction to the High Court judgment that Parliament will have to vote on Article 50 shows that a soft Brexit, in which Britain retained reasonable access to the European single market, would be much more preferable to a hard one, where it didn’t. The […]
What would the US economy really look like under President Hillary Clinton? on November 6, 2016Hillary Clinton’s economic proposals are essentially a continuation of the policies established by the Obama administration, but with some innovations on both fiscal, trade and regulatory policies. But as with all aspirants to the presidency, the central issue will be whether she has a supportive or a confrontational Congress. All presidents have difficulties with Congress. […]
Forget Brexit – this is what will happen to the world economy if Donald Trump wins the US election on October 24, 2016Unless there is something quite shattering in tonight’s TV debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to become the next US president. Ahead of the debate the odds put that at an 80 per cent chance, while the possibility of any other outcome is simply not factored into the financial markets […]
The five things coming up that can tell you about our post-Brexit housing market on July 24, 2016This will be the first week when we begin to catch some feeling for the economic impact of the Brexit vote. We have seen the impact on the financial markets, with on the one hand the devaluation of the pound, and on the other the rise in the FTSE 100 index and in gilt prices. […]
The EU and IMF deal over Southern Europe hangs over the Brexit debate on May 29, 2016Is Europe the new Japan? It is an oft-posed question and one that is hanging over the Brexit debate. Leavers argue that if Europe is going to be a sclerotic economic region, maybe the UK is better getting shot of it. Remainers reply that quitting the EU does not mean you quit the European economic […]
Britains financial health: five things to look out for on May 8, 2016Is concern about Brexit starting to hit business confidence? There does seem to have been a slowdown in the UK economy during the first three months of the year, but there was a slowing in the US too, so it is hard to attribute that to fears about the referendum vote. In any case that […]