On my visit to the US, apart from many a thing that had brought me here, I tried to figure out what it is that is allowing outsider candidates gain traction among the voters. Both Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Bernie Sanders from the Democratic Party are considered outsiders and are running a campaign against respective party establishments as well as the US establishment at large. It has been pretty unusual in recent times for an anti-establishment candidate to become a front-runner or close contender in primaries for the US presidential elections. So, what is it that is causing this unusual trend in not one but both the mainstream parties of the US?
The short answer is that the US is angry. People in general feel that the system is broken. Many people from the middle and lower income classes are feeling squeezed and are finding it hard to maintain their lifestyles. They think that the system of US government has become a tool of powerful interests and that basic amenities and services, like healthcare and quality education, are getting out of reach for more and more Americans. They also feel that their tax system is broken and with time has started burdening the have nots more and more, compared to the haves who find many loopholes in the system that make them pay disproportionately lower taxes compared to their higher incomes. This has led to anger among the masses in the period following the 2008 financial crisis. The anger has reached a point where more and more people want to try outsiders to fix the system while losing hope in the system to correct course on itself.
Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, income disparity in the US has grown. Just when the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 10 percent to under six percent, the job participation rate has dropped even more steeply from around 68 percent to 61 percent. Median wage adjusted for inflation is pretty much stagnant. Though core inflation is low, on account of lower commodity prices and most of the housing market being stagnant, the cost of living, e.g. the price of staples, is on the rise. People feel that the bank bailouts of 2008 and the stimulus that followed served the big financial and corporate institutions while denying any benefit to the common man. Even some established economists are terming this stimulus as the biggest transfer of wealth to the haves in recent western history. And then there is the key structural problem with the US economy: most of its work force is not equipped with taking on jobs in sectors that are growing, e.g. healthcare, biotech, high-tech, financial services and analytics. This means that although the economy is growing, it is excluding more and more people. This explains the anger Americans are feeling and explains the rise of both Trump in the Republican Party and Sanders in the Democratic Party.
Trump’s rhetoric is aimed at addressing this anger. His targeting of Mexicans and other immigrants has its core in the structural job problem that the US economy is facing. He is proposing to simplify the tax code and, surprisingly for a Republican, is propagating a public healthcare system for all Americans, providing them quality public healthcare similar to the European welfare state model. Sanders, though liberal on immigration and minorities, is proposing more or less the same measures. However, Sanders, unlike Trump, proposes increasing taxes for the provision of some of public services. Both Sanders and Trump have not come up with the arithmetic to show how their plans are going to work. But, in this, these anti-establishment candidates are challenging the power-centres of US polity and economy, and this challenge is giving them traction with the voters.
So, who will be US president? Well, on the Democratic side, as of now, it seems that despite Sanders’ challenge, Hillary Clinton is likely to secure a nomination because of her support among Black and Hispanic minorities, which constitute a key voting block for Democrats. Also, Mrs Clinton has been a champion of quite a few liberal and welfare causes, including her healthcare proposal of 1994, and this makes her acceptable to the borderline angry crowd as well. However, being in or close to government for over two decades, Mrs Clinton is considered establishment and thus young Americans in droves are opposing her and siding with Sanders in the Democratic primaries.
As for Republicans, Donald Trump is all set to secure the nomination. The only challenge could be all of Trump’s opponents rallying behind some Republican establishment candidate and waiting for Mr Trump to commit some follies. For now, Trump’s alleged follies have been well calculated and have been received by his base as the frank talk of an honest and candid leader. Even his most absurd comments have not harmed him for they portray him, in the eyes of his supporters, as a man who believes in saying things the way he feels them without any thought of being politically correct.
As for the presidential election itself, because of the burden of incumbency and an economy that is not functioning, the Democrats will have a hard time. Sanders may pull it off, distancing himself from the Democratic establishment, but how Clinton manages it will have to be seen. One thing, though, is for sure: whether an insider wins or an outsider, the post-election US will be a radically different place for Americans and for the world.
The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik