Among the many advantages of democracy, one is certainly more visible: continuous democracy can make people understand the motives, intentions, strategies and policies of different political parties in a country. Men are rational human beings, and their inner rationality guides them towards what is good and/or what is bad for them. They apply this rationality on a political level when they choose a political party, and reject others through their vote on election day, and by giving a birth to public opinion before the process of electioneering.
It has now been more than three years since the present government has been driving the structures of democratic order. Much has been changed since then. Those leaders who were once charismatic, appealing and ideal for a large number of population, if not the majority, are now seen as not-so-charismatic. Let’s go back to October 2011. Indeed, it was a big day for Pakistan’s democracy. The party that was not in limelight since 1996 suddenly came out of the blue and became the new ‘hope’ for the population — both rural and urban-based middle class and the elite. And their arrival on the centre stage brought many defections in the other major political parties: Yes! We are talking about the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The poor governance of the Pakistan people’s Party (PPP) brought a political vacuum on the political stage, which was successfully filled by Imran Khan and his PTI. It would not be wrong to say that 2011 was the real emergence of the PTI.
Soon the wave of defection started like a ‘tsunami’, and many strong pillars of other political parties — PPP and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) — joined the PTI. It looked as if the next government would surely be of the PTI. But that was not what people wanted. In the May 2013 elections, people, overwhelmingly, cast their votes in favour of PML-N candidates, enabling the party to form national and provincial governments in Punjab and Balochistan. But the wave in favour of Khan that started in 2011 was not an illusion.
For the first time, the PTI actually managed to form government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and became the largest opposition party in the Punjab assembly. That was a big ‘win’ for the party. It was clear at that time that the poor governance of the PPP in the previous years created a gap, successfully filled by the PTI. People were rational. They ousted the PPP from power from all provinces other than Sindh (where the PPP has rural dominance), brought in the PML-N, and also largely supported the PTI.
But then the situation turned upside down. It was a great chance for Khan to prove his worth through action. Had the PTI worked hard, and focused itself in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa rather than going for street politics and taking on ‘non-issues’, it would have managed to weaken the all-powerful PML-N. Things were very much in favour of the PTI. Khan just needed to show Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as a model to the country, and put pressure on the government in parliament. On both fronts, Khan badly failed. Instead of focusing on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, he wasted almost the entire three years in allegations and counter-allegations.
If allegations were not sufficient to oust the PML-N from power, Khan resorted to street power, civil disobedience, resigning from parliament, re-entering parliament, and now re-launching street power. Although the sits-in by the PTI in 2014 educated the citizens a great deal about politics, PTI’s strategy backfired to a great extent. The dharna (sit-in) fiasco and the attacks on parliament and PTV are now a part of the political history of Pakistan.
At the same time when the PTI was focusing only on agitation politics rather than making progress in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PML-N kept on becoming stronger. Now it has become a force to reckon with. Thanks to the PTI.
Agitation only works when governments fear them. And that fear only comes when the agitation is not done on a regular basis. When agitation and sits-in become the regular party policy of one political party, it not only exposes the ‘vision-strategy-policy’ of the political party but also damages the element of ‘fear’. The PTI has done the same. By making street agitation a part of their policy, they have been becoming more a fun activity for people rather than a fear for the government. Once again, they are going on the same wrong track.
Staging a dharna in front of the prime minister’s private residence would greatly damage the reputation of the PTI and Imran Khan. No one in the history of Pakistan has ever resorted to such a move. Why? There is a socio-cultural unacceptability of people who threaten someone by protesting outside that person’s house where family members including females and children are present. If the PTI talks about the British practice of protests in front of the 10 Downing Street, it should understand that the 10 Downing Street is different from the Raiwind house. Whereas the 10 Downing Street is the official house of the British prime minister, the house in Raiwind is the private property of Pakistan’s prime minister and his family. The 10 Downing Street can only be compared to the Prime Minister House in Islamabad.
There can be justifications for doing a protest in front of the Prime Minister House in Islamabad, which is an official building, and not a private house. Already, the Karachi rally in the Nishtar Park has clearly shown the receding popularity of the PTI and Imran Khan. And then comes the internal conflicts between Faisal Wahda, Ali Zaidi and the other official bearers of the PTI in Karachi. If the PTI still resorts to street power it could be the political death of the party.
For now, one can easily predict the elections of 2018 if the same factors remain constant: PML-N at the centre and Punjab; PPP in Sindh; Jaamat-e-Islami-Jaamat-e-Ulema-Islami-PML-N in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; and PMLN-Nationalists in Balochistan. The PTI may only get a few more seats in Punjab.
PS: Only a rational analysis, and no bias towards any of the parties.
The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected] and on Twitter at @hassanshahjehan