Moharram is one of the main religious months in Pakistan. Every year, a handsome amount is spent for security of different events during Moharram and maintaining law and order in different districts of the country. In Punjab, managing Moharram is one of the biggest challenges for police commanders and district administration. The month pivots around processions and majalis in which a large number of people annually participate to express their devotion and attachment to the historical incident of Karbala.
Three important areas need to be focused on to conduct the events of Moharram securely with utmost protection and surveillance. These include the amount of financial resources allocated for Moharram, manner of force deployment and gauging threat perception of the region with considerable accuracy.
In Punjab, a gradual increase in the number of processions and majalis has been observed for last five years. In 2011, the total majalis were 35,718 along with 10,142 processions, whereas in the following year the figures rose to 38,028 and 10,873 respectively. Similarly, in 2013 the total number of majalis and processions remained pegged at 38,816 and 11,001. In 2014, the count increased to 38,492 and 11,434 respectively. Last year, the number of majalis was 38,769 but the total processions decreased to 10,391.
On regional basis, the highest number of majalis has been observed in Gujranwala followed by Sargodha, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Sheikhupura, Sahiwal and Bahawalpur respectively. The regional comparative analysis of processions shows that Faisalabad has the highest numbers followed by Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Dera Ghazi Khan, Sheikhupura, Multan, Lahore, Bahawalpur and Sahiwal respectively. Interestingly, the financial implication of Moharram has rarely been brought under spotlight for examination and policy analysis.
On the financial side, there is a specific budget allocation for Moharram, funds disbursed to Tehsil Municipal Administrations (TMAs), budget provided to district administration and the number of secondary grants released for payment to Rangers and army etc. The human resource utilised on the occasion also has its cost, which is reflected in high physical intensive duty hours during processions and majalis.
We have not taken into account such intangibles in our calculations and have focused on total material sources spent on the occasion. One of the limitations involves inaccessibility of available data and its dispersion. Resultantly, we have relied on regional data obtained through District Accounts Offices to determine the financial implication of Moharram processions and majalis. A slight change in number of processions and majalis spanning over five years period has been indicated above. The percentage increase in these activities is highest in 2011-12 when nearly five percent increment was recorded whereas in the remaining years the percentage increase or decrease was minimal.
The financial amount released for different years indicates appreciable increase in annual allocations ranging from 27 to 176 percent respectively. In 2011, a total amount of 80.2 million rupees was spent on Moharram duties followed by 91.3 million (2012), 119.3 million (2013), 249.1 million (2014) and 265.4 million (2015) respectively. After 2013, a greater portion of funds allocated for Moharram duties has been provided to the Punjab Police Department. Moreover, if we assume uniform distribution of funds on each Moharram activity then the total amount spent per activity comes out to be Rs 1,712 in 2011 followed by Rs 1,867 (2012), Rs 2,395 (2013), Rs 5,091 (2014) and Rs 5,399 (2015) respectively. Correspondingly, the number of incidents during Moharram days for the past three years indicates a gradual decrease. For example, 18 deaths and 142 injuries were reported in 16 different incidents of violence in Moharram of 2013, whereas, in 2014 these incidents were reduced to six with three fatalities along with 26 injuries. No incident of major violence was reported last year.
In the last few years most casualties occurred in the Rawalpindi region followed by Gujranwala, Sargodha, Dera Ghazi Khan, Sahiwal, Faisalabad, Lahore, Bahawalpur and Multan respectively. This clearly indicates that the security of Moharram has appreciably improved with high financial investment and better threat analysis in the province. Here it should be kept in mind that threat perception analysis is a dynamic process and it changes with each passing day. Moreover, localisation effect of regional and international terror incidents should always be included in such deliberations.
The recent Moharram processions and majalis are taking place at a time when the nation is confronted with multiple terror challenges of internal and external dimensions. The current situation in the Indian-held Kashmir coupled with increased Line of Control activities from both sides and the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb are going to reshape the security environment during the month of Moharram. Moreover, incidents of terrorism in Afghanistan and counterterror operations against non-state actors in Pak-Afghan region shall also have a considerable impact on Moharram activities. The recent incident of sectarian killing in Taxila, which has been acclaimed by Lashker-e-Jhangvi Al-Almi, along with activities of Daesh and Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan should also be kept in view.
The force deployment for Moharram varies from region to region on the basis of total available police strength. In addition, the Punjab Constabulary and other auxiliary units of the Punjab Police like the Punjab Highway Patrol, Traffic, Special Branch etc also contribute to the overall security of the province. Moreover, Rangers and army units are also employed in case of any major incident or where sectarian rifts escalate to a level unmanageable for local police. The force deployment indicates that the maximum number of police personnel per Moharram activity is deployed in Capital City District Lahore followed by Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Multan, Sahiwal, Gujranwala, Dera Ghazi Khan and Sargodha respectively. It also indicates that all those regions where moderate or low police deployment is maintained exhibits greater chances of clashes during the month.
The utilisation of latest techniques like Integrated Command, Control & Communication Centre at Lahore, and employing quod copters for aerial coverage are important steps for better monitoring. In the end, human resource training, social connectivity and accurate threat forecasts are the deciding factors for controlling terror incidents and managing a mammoth activity like Moharram.
The writer is a senior superintendent of police