The region of South-Asia constitutes eight independent nations and intakes around one-sixth of the world population which makes it consequential in global politics. The geography of the South-Asian region holds the vanguard position in the geopolitics as it is connected with the three continents of the world. The northern borders of South-Asia touch China and Central-Asia, while southern peninsula links up with the significant Indian ocean and provides it with the world’s most important maritime routes ranging from Malacca strait to South Atlantic through the rim of South-Africa. Hence, this provides the South-Asian region with the tri-continental dynamics of the geopolitical structure. These multiple dimensions of geography invite a plethora of complexities in the afore-stated region.
The two important nuclear states in the region – Pakistan and India – are the raison d’etre for most of the problems in the region stretching from traditional geopolitical and military security, dilapidated economic dislocation to exasperating nuclear war threats. Not only this, poverty, sectarian cleavages, health and educations problems, low trade links and high tariffs, energy issues and intolerance are some worth-mentioning factors which keep hindering region’s integrity and progression.
The South-Asian region revolves around the three states for its security and progress -India, Pakistan and Afghanistan – which are at cross-purpose with each other in almost every field of interaction, be it security, trade or alliance. The increasing antipathy and feelings of antagonism between the two ancient hostile neighbours and being regional and strategic competitors are sending this region in the pit of obscurity with their nefarious designs for each other. To add fuel the fire, Afghanistan is turning to be a conflict-plagued country where all international terrorist organizations are developing their strong footholds for their future bloodshed plans. The role of international power in Afghanistan in the garb of maintaining peace and establishing long-term security apparatus are further disrupting the structure. The geostrategic pivot of Afghanistan is a sine qua non for the regional peace, stability, development and progression.
According to the glass-half-full report, the trade between India and Pakistan is about $2 billion per annum. The trade has the potential to reach $35 billion
India and Pakistan are confronting each other in many key areas where regional stability is staying on a ventilator. The excessive amassing of weapons and stockpiling of nuclear warheads are the vital factors responsible for regional instability. Both states are using their diplomatic channels to enhance their clout over developed states for signing weapons deal to maintain regional strategic equation. In the current scenario, India has inked weapons deal with the US and Israel. Not only this, India is lobbying on diplomatic fronts to become the part of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and a member of the UN Security Council. In the same way, to maintain the status quo, Pakistan is also extending its diplomacy to the corridors of China and Russia to enhance its weapons modernity and viability and winning the two veto members’ trust to impede Indian hostile designs in international forums which could harm Pakistan’s national interests. This sort of proxy war between the two states is endangering regional security and development.
All along, the Kashmir issue has been the bone of contention between the two nations since Partition. They have fought several wars to bring this issue to an end but it is still lingering on. Indian gross human rights violations and reign of terror in India-held Kashmir and Pakistan’s involvement to halt this being the only Muslim nuclear power is bringing complexities for regional stability and peace. This issue has further created a little room for uplifting regional trade and diplomatic relations between the two contentious and malevolent neighbours. According to the glass-half-full report, the trade between India and Pakistan is about $2 billion per annum. The trade has the potential to reach $35 billion. Notwithstanding, their hostile designs and high tariffs on each other are creating an atmosphere where the economic structure is becoming fragile, poverty is raising its head along with other social evils of low education standards and outdated health sectors in both countries.
Another flaw that needs the spotlight is hybrid warfare (5th generation warfare) between the two fragile countries. In the era of the 21st Century, the scope of direct confrontation has reduced to indirect encounter and showdown. Indian support to terrorist outfits in Balochistan and Karachi and a few on Afghan soil to destabilize Pakistan is the part of hybrid warfare. Likewise, India alleges Pakistan of orchestrating bombing on the Indian parliament and the recent Uri and Pulwama attacks. Therefore, under such a confused and dangerous atmosphere, where clouds of nuclear war continuously hover over the region, peace and progression can only be a pipe dream.
Furthermore, Afghanistan is the third and the foremost party which has been away from peace for many decades. It would not be unfair to surmise that Afghanistan has seen a lot of bloodshed in the era of 1980’s and especially the post 9/11 incident. Insurgencies in Afghanistan have brought the region on the flashpoint leaving their deep imprints from which the region is still trying to disentangle itself from its harsh and bloody consequences. Moreover, the presence of international powers to ace their vested interests, home ground of many international terrorist outfits, fertile land for drug and human trafficking have made Afghanistan supremo in the region owing to its geography to maintain either peace of harbour the waves of uncertainty and terror in the region.
In such state of affairs, the two nuclear powers of the region – Pakistan and India – have to shoulder the responsibility for maintaining sustainable peace, long-awaited progress and development and cordial ties among all the states of the region to avoid terrorism, insecurity and nuclear threat. This could only be materialized by revving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to its best possible service delivery manner. The frequent meetings of all the South-Asian countries on the forum of SAARC to discuss the regional problems involving regional stability and progress can lead to a prosperous and peaceful region.
The writer is a columnist, historian and international political and security