The Trump administration views Iran as a uniquely dangerous actor in the Middle East. Mr Trump’s decision to withdraw United Stares from the Iran nuclear deal, the imposition of trade sanctions and the recent US announcement labelling the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization all speak of a mindset that refuses to accept Iran as a part of the international community. It rejects his predecessor’s pragmatic approach towards Tehran.
Provoked by US actions, Iran has warned of leaving the nuclear Mon-Proliferation Treaty regime. Preventive diplomacy is the only way to defuse the tensions.
Making a policy shift from Middle East-centric to Asia-centric, President Obama had encouraged Iran to join the international system via a well-conceived, well-articulated nuclear deal – pragmatically endorsed by the European Union, Russia, and China. President Obama had remained committed to implementing the agreement. He had also tried to nudge the Palestinians and the Israelis to restart negotiations for a two-state solution.
Obama had defied pressure from Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt and refused to attack Iran . In an interview with The Atlantic, Obama outlined power-sharing incentives for Iran and Saudi Arabia rather than unilateral dominance of the Middle East. Most significantly, President Obama was committed to not pursuing regime change in Iran. He sought relations founded upon mutual interest and mutual respect.
Mr Trump says he is seeking strategic balance. Calling the JCPOA a “horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made,” he has announced that the United States would soon begin “reinstating US nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime.” Trump told the UN General Assembly that the JCPOA was “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States had ever entered into” and that it was “an embarrassment to the United States”.
The Trump administration’s mindset is reflected in withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and re-imposing sanctions that were suspended under the deal. He says these could compel Iran to accept US demands – or face the prospect of a regime collapse. The hawkish approach is a throw back to George W Bush’s axis-of-evil rhetoric – bluntly jettisoning Obama’s peace dialogue vis-à-vis Iran. The withdrawal move violates the foundational international law principle of pacta sunt servanda, which says that agreements should be kept. Recently, democratic candidates for president, Senators Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have affirmed that they would return to the deal without a precondition, as long as Iran appeared to be abiding by the nuclear deal signed in 2015.
As for the US sanctions imposed on Iran in October 2018, The Hague-based International Court of Justice has reprimanded the US over its re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, telling Washington to lift such measures linked to humanitarian trade, food, medicine, and civil aviation
As for US sanctions imposed on Iran in October 2018, The Hague-based International Court of Justice has reprimanded the US over its re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, telling Washington to lift the restraints linked to humanitarian trade, food, medicine, and civil aviation. Iran had solicited before the World Justice Court that the return to sanctions imposed by Trump following the US withdrawal from the 2015 landmark nuclear agreement was a violation of the Treaty of Amity, a 1955 pre-revolutionary friendship treaty. Ironically, Secretary of State Pompeo has responded by revoking the treaty.
Trump administration’s branding the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as terrorist is highly problematic. The decision to sanction a uniformed military unit as a foreign terrorist organization risks establishing a new negatively imposed global norm, whereby governments can unilaterally choose to label adversarial armed forces non-state actors, thereby making them legitimate military targets. This is possibly an attempt at legitimising US forces attacks on target groups in third countries in the name of combating terrorism.
Mike Pompeo has also formulated new stipulations for a deal with the Iranians. His chartered demands include a complete halt to uranium enrichment, unqualified access for International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, a ban on the development or flight-testing of nuclear-capable missiles, the end of Iranian support for Hezbollah and other regional proxies, withdrawal from Syria of all forces under Iranian command, and the cessation of Tehran’s threatening behaviour toward regional US partners. Failing Iran’s compliance with this will result in a US attempt at regime change.
Trump appears to be aligning his policies with those of Israel’s Likud coalition, which considers Iran an existential danger.
This points to a US-Israel collaboration on drawing a new Middle Eastern template. US wants Israel to exercise control over the region. Trump’s vision of a Middle East, calling for an Israeli hegemony and brinkmanship, is a road to disaster. The US hostility towards Iran threatens to derail the prospects of peace in the region. Already enjoying US support apparent in installation of THAD missile system, Israel is spoiling for an opportunity to attack Iran. “The Islamic Republic’s choices are numerous, and the country’s authorities are considering them. Leaving NPT is one of them,” Iranian state media has quoted Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as saying on April 28.
France, Germany, Russia and China have been exploring ways to save the JCPOA without the United States, counteract American sanctions, and have rejected the hawkish rhetoric coming from the Trump administration. From Obama’s realistic perspective, a bipolar nuclear Middle East would be more stable than the one giving Israel a monopoly of strategic weapons. Based on Resolution 598, the UNSC could take practical steps to create a culture of regional security and cooperation in the Persian Gulf where Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and five other states around the Persian Gulf would take collective responsibility in the absence of US forces, morphing current regional rivalries into partnerships.
The writer is a freelancer